Best ODI batsman?

[Prince EWS]

if you understand probability like you claim then you would get a decent score if you were like the batsmen we are talking abt here .... if not then the probability of you not getting a zero at least would be high

the 'probability' here works in the same was as heads and tails in a coin .... the more heads you get, the chances of getting a tail increases

That's not true at all though. It's totally wrong.

The chance of landing a head is always 50%. There isn't a universal equalising function which knows how many tails you've just landed. The chance of landing two heads in a row before you've flipped the coin the first time is only 25%, but once you've landed that first head, it's back to 50% for the next one.

In essence, Jamee was right. You don't know what you're talking about here and I don't think anyone has any intention of schooling you on it any further than I just did.

 

[Prince EWS]

Haha no chance mate. There is no such thing as probability in cricket.

Nah, there's probability in everything. Ret really doesn't know how it works and is looking sillier by the post, but there is probability in cricket.

The batsman could get a good ball one game, and it will have 0 bearing on what will happen next game.

Indeed. The probability of that happening could theoretically be calculated though.

 

[Prince EWS]

let's see how many heads you get when you flip a coin ten times

Flipping nine heads in a row doesn't increase the chances of the next one being a tail. If you don't believe me, then I can't do much about it, but that's how it is.

 

[Ikki]

so how many times, he chased high scores [so that takes the bowlers out of reckoning] with the chips down?

Er, I don't have a catalogue of Bevan's high score chases in his 232 game ODI career in my head, but let's just say there were plenty. Check his biggest scores, they'd be your safest bet.

Besides, I don't think it matters as much. Even if you are chasing 100, but you have to bat with the tail it is an extremely difficult thing to do.

 

[ret]

Flipping nine heads in a row doesn't increase the chances of the next one being a tail. If you don't believe me, then I can't do much about it, but that's how it is.

an investor would probably bet on getting a tail after 9 heads though

 

[Jono]

Not because of any mathematical reason though ret. What you're arguing is different, and silly.

Its good though, because its turned the yearly attempt on this board to disparage Sachin's ODI exploits into even more of a joke

 

[ret]

Er, I don't have a catalogue of Bevan's high score chases in his 232 game ODI career in my head, but let's just say there were plenty. Check his biggest scores, they'd be your safest bet.

Besides, I don't think it matters as much. Even if you are chasing 100, but you have to bat with the tail it is an extremely difficult thing to do.

that sums up everything

 

[ret]

Not because of any mathematical reason though ret. What you're arguing is different, and silly.

Its good though, because its turned the yearly attempt on this board to disparage Sachin's ODI exploits into even more of a joke

all's well that ends well

 

[Ikki]

that sums up everything

Does it? Does it also have a probability?

 

[PhoenixFire]

Nah, there's probability in everything. Ret really doesn't know how it works and is looking sillier by the post, but there is probability in cricket.

How so?

 

[Jamee999]

if you understand probability like you claim then you would get a decent score if you were like the batsmen we are talking abt here .... if not then the probability of you not getting a zero at least would be high

the 'probability' here works in the same was as heads and tails in a coin .... the more heads you get, the chances of getting a tail increases

NO! NO IT DOESN'T! WHY IN THE WORLD WOULD YOU THINK THAT?

Does one side of the coin magically become heavier after a flip?

Answer me this:

If I flip a coin three times, and the results are Heads, Heads, Heads, what is the chance of getting heads on the fourth flip?

 

[ret]

NO! NO IT DOESN'T! WHY IN THE WORLD WOULD YOU THINK THAT?

Does one side of the coin magically become heavier after a flip?

Answer me this:

If I flip a coin three times, and the results are Heads, Heads, Heads, what is the chance of getting heads on the fourth flip?

with 3 heads, i would bank on tail for the 4th as i would think that the chances of tail would be more

 

[PhoenixFire]

NO! NO IT DOESN'T! WHY IN THE WORLD WOULD YOU THINK THAT?

Does one side of the coin magically become heavier after a flip?

Answer me this:

If I flip a coin three times, and the results are Heads, Heads, Heads, what is the chance of getting heads on the fourth flip?

4/5, duh.

 

[Prince EWS]

How so?

Well, the probability of something is simply the chance that something might happen. In cricket terms, it'd be nearly impossibly to practically calculate the probability of something happening due to all the possible variables, but it's the theoretically possible. For example, if you factored in every possible outcome considering all the variables, you may find that the probability of Saj Mahmood making the batsman defend was 0.00004.

 

[Jamee999]

with 3 heads, i would bank on tail for the 4th as i would think that the chances of tail would be more

 

[ret]

Does it? Does it also have a probability?

yep, as thats what one of things that i implied that its even difficult to recollect how many match winning innings that Bevan has played on his own which is not the case with Ten and Viv

 

[Prince EWS]

with 3 heads, i would bank on tail for the 4th as i would think that the chances of tail would be more

You're wrong then. It's still 50%. It's 50% every time.

 

[PhoenixFire]

with 3 heads, i would bank on tail for the 4th as i would think that the chances of tail would be more

Oh good lord

The probability of a fair coin landing on heads/tails is always 0.5, no matter how many times it lands on heads.

 

[Lillian Thomson]

People are confusing "probability" with the "law of averages".

 

[silentstriker]

with 3 heads, i would bank on tail for the 4th as i would think that the chances of tail would be more

Probability doesn't work like that, the next chance is also 50%. The chance of the next coin flip is always 50%. Only way you can guarantee that the overall distribution will be 50-50 is if you had infinite tries with the coin. You can be pretty sure though, with a large enough sample size.