it's going to take some consistency to justify selection, and that takes time - anything else is either a prodigeous talent, a stop gap measure or a punt........
IMO NZ need to answer some basic questions re strategies etc b4 they start to look at replacements:
1. ODI batting strategy - 1st 15 over attack v last 10 over attack;
2. Cairns' role in the team - allrounder / part time support bowler / batsman;
3. Vincent's role in the team - Test & ODI. I struggle with the idea that he is good enough to open in Tests but not good enough for ODIs - is it his technique / strike rate or something? It reminds me of the past selection / non-selection of Bruce Edgar.
once they can answer these questions they need to look at some specialists in key areas to achieve these strategies:
1. ODI batting - they need to strengthen the top order with a specialist opener to protect the middle & lower orders from exposure to the new ball attack. I find it comical that the batsman with the best form from the ODI series v India did not get an extended run in the WC, particularly when there were so many problems with the top order / opening positions;
2. They need to select at least another seam bowler with penetration to compliment Bond so the attack does not run out of juice. Vettori is supposedly attacking by nature so they should take the shackles off him and use attacking field settings - but you need runs on the board or the consistant ability to score as insurance;
3. They need to look at more variety in the seam attack on the field - apart from Bond it seemed much the same pace.
This may result in some players becoming Test / ODI specialists, or horses for courses.
Next they may need to talk with some of the current players & coaches re changing their styles or targeting certain areas if they are to have a long term future in either squad. EG Adams IMO needs to look at lengthening his run up to gain more rythmn & control of his bowling, while Sinclair may need to target his footwork & taking singles re possible option as ODI opener.
Butler & O'Conner are my personal favs re bowling options, Butler for pace & O'Conner brings swing, particularly if Cairns is relegated to a part time support role. On current form Tuffey, Mills & Adams would miss out. I also like Hitchcock ahead of Harris as he has more variety & is considered a specialist 'at the death' like Mills.
McMillan is badly out of sorts & Vincent still looks unsure as to what is required of him. If Sinclair was considered the next best ODI batsman (he made the final squad), then he should be given the chance to have a run in the team b4 being passed over for a newby to the squad.
NZ also needs to get their Home pitch development back on track & encourage the batsman to back themselves & attack bowlers more often as they did v Canada, without needing to resort to a slog - Fleming's controlled agression is a fine example.
Some new blood should go on tour for both squads, esp if NZ do go to England to replace either SA or ZIM. Also they should perhaps look at trial type matches as they do in other codes & not just Nth v Sth state of origin, but these should be of mixed teams & not just v an 'A' team or 'possibles' v 'probables'.
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