Standardised Test Bowling Averages Across Time

[Goughy]

Im bored so I though I would look to standardise bowling Test bowling averages of different players from any time period. This would hopefully make comparisons easier, though never exact.

Im sure it will have been done before but it is an interesting exercise.

Im sure there may be points made about the methodology but it is the fairest way I can see possible.

Methodology
Break the history of Test cricket into smaller groups and work out the 'global' Test bowling average for that period.

19th C- 22.38 Global bowling average

Pre WW1- 26.15 Global bowling average

Inter War Years- 33.33 Global bowling average

1945-75- 31.80 Global bowling average

75-90- 32.56 Global bowling average

1990s- 31.87 Global bowling average

2000s- 34.38 Global bowling average

It is important to see the differences as each time period will have had different conditions that may have favoured the batsman or the bowler and affected the balance between the two. eg uncovered tracks, bat technology, LBW laws etc

One of the figures needs to be chosen as the base number. I chose the 1990s as any one would do but it is simply the period I watched the most cricket in.

So the 1990s number of 31.87 is the base number of 1. Then this number of 31.87 is divided by all the other 'global averages' to give the weighting for that period of time.

19th C- 1.42 Weighting

Pre WW1- 1.22 Weighting

Inter War Years- 0.96 Weighting

1945-75- 1 Weighting

75-90- 0.98 Weighting

1990s- 1 Weighting

2000s- 0.93 Weighting

Now averages from those periods would be multiplied by the weighting and a new and more standardised average would be the result.

However, to further ensure that the numbers are more comparable and that we are comparing apples with apples, only the wickets taken in games won or lost will be used in the new average.

This is to get a stable base where all games are played in an environment where 20 wickets are capable of being taken and doesnt penalise players who played on dead tracks or favour players that spent most of their times on bowling heavens (eg Lohmann never played in a drawn test match).

So the stats from non-drawn tests are given their weightings and the new standardised averaged are the product.

Many players have played across different periods so the games they played are weighted differently.

Results

Malcolm Marshall
Actual Test Av= 20.94
Standardised Test Av= 17.78

41 games in 75-90 that were either won or lost taking 238 wickets @ 17.24
11 games in 1990s that were either won or lost taking 43 wickets @ 21.09

so
((41/52)*0.98*17.24) + ((11/52)*1*21.09) = 17.78

Fred Trueman
Actual Test Av= 21.57
Standardised Test Av= 20.26

45 games in 45-75 that were either won or lost taking 218 wickets @ 20.26

so
20.26*1 = 20.26

Syd Barnes
Actual Test Av= 16.43
Standardised Test Av= 19.58

In Pre-WWI he took 165 wickets in games either won or lost @ 16.05

so
16.05*1.22 = 19.58

Murali
Actual Test Av= 21.73
Standardised Test Av= 19.79

28 games in 1990s that were either won or lost taking 161 wickets @ 24.08
50 games in 2000s that were either won or lost taking 375 wickets @ 18.7

so
((28/78)*1*24.08) + ((50/78)*0.93*18.7 = 19.79

So with the few I have done.

Standardised Test Bowling Av Leaderboard
Marshall = 17.78
McGrath = 19.29
Barnes = 19.58
Murali = 19.79
Hadlee = 20.12
Trueman = 20.26
Donald = 21.33
Warne = 22.91
Kumble = 23.97
Harmison = 26.45
Sobers = 30.22

Would be willing to work out some other players if people want to request them

 

[archie mac]

Im bored so I though I would look to standardise bowling Test bowling averages of different players from any time period. This would hopefully make comparisons easier, though never exact.

Im sure it will have been done before but it is an interesting exercise.

Im sure there may be points made about the methodology but it is the fairest way I can see possible.

Currently adding the full post.

I just hope this not like the brothel in the caravan?

All the best bits are in the trailer (there an attempt by AM at humour)

No offence attended Goughy, I am sure you will do a great job

 

[Richard]

I hope I'll get this when I see the thing, 'cos just reading the explanation I don't.

 

[Goughy]

If anyones interested just post a player and Ill try to do their standardised average.

Its an effort to make averages form different time periods more comparable. Obviously though, there is no perfect way of doing it.

 

[Richard]

TBH, I'd prefer it if you did it (regarding games in England, in any case) into 19th-century, 1900-1930, 1930-1970 and 1970-current day.

In Australia it'd be different - if Sean could remind me again when pitches started being covered over there?

EDIT: having just read the entire post, my head is spinning, TBH.

 

[Goughy]

Adding pre-WW1 and Inter war years isnt appropriate as you can see there is a big difference in the bowling averages of the period and both were very different in cricketing terms.

Also doing 1970 to current is a little broad IMO as the game has changed a lot in the past 10 years let alone 37.

 

[Richard]

Possibly 1970-2000 would be better.

Was the game really that different in 1924 to how it was in 1912? I honestly don't know a heck of a lot about anything pre-1930.

 

[Goughy]

Possibly 1970-2000 would be better.

Was the game really that different in 1924 to how it was in 1912? I honestly don't know a heck of a lot about anything pre-1930.

Very different. The war changed a lot and brought the end of the 'Golden Age of Cricket'. Cricket was a different animal after WWI

 

[Prince EWS]

TBH, I'd prefer it if you did it (regarding games in England, in any case) into 19th-century, 1900-1930, 1930-1970 and 1970-current day.

In Australia it'd be different - if Sean could remind me again when pitches started being covered over there?

EDIT: having just read the entire post, my head is spinning, TBH.

It's hardly complicated IMO. He has simply taken the global bowling averages (that is, the average of all test bowling) of each period and then tried to standardise them by converting that global average to the same number. Once that was done, he had different weightings for each year.

For example, a bowler who has bowled exclusively since 2000 - say, Stuart Clark - would have his bowling average multiplied by 0.93 to get his standardised average, as the bowling averages of the base period (the 1990s) were 0.93 times the size of the averages in Clark's period. Someone who bowled exclusively in the 19th century would have their average multipled by 1.42 because the global bowling average in that period was 1.42 times bigger than the base period.

It gets a little more complicated for players who bowled across two periods - but I'm sure you can see how he figured that.

 

[Goughy]

Just thought I do McGraths before heading to bed.

McGrath
Test Av = 21.64
Standardised Test Av = 19.29

Puts him second on the list so far.

 

[Goughy]

Just thought I do McGraths before heading to bed.

Sod it 1 more

Harmison
Test Av = 31.10
Standardised Test Av = 26.45

EDIT 1 more

Warne
Test Av = 25.41
Standardised Test Av = 22.91

 

[Richard]

It's hardly complicated IMO. He has simply taken the global bowling averages (that is, the average of all test bowling) of each period and then tried to standardise them by converting that global average to the same number. Once that was done, he had different weightings for each year.

For example, a bowler who has bowled exclusively since 2000 - say, Stuart Clark - would have his bowling average multiplied by 0.93 to get his standardised average, as the bowling averages of the base period (the 1990s) were 0.93 times the size of the averages in Clark's period. Someone who bowled exclusively in the 19th century would have their average multipled by 1.42 because the global bowling average in that period was 1.42 times bigger than the base period.

It gets a little more complicated for players who bowled across two periods - but I'm sure you can see how he figured that.

I'm sure I could work it easily having read Kev's post, say, 10 times.

That's normally how long it takes me to take-up any mathematical formula these days.

 

[shortpitched713]

Hmm... seems pretty good to me. The periods seem a bit arbitrary though. Maybe decades would be a better and more objective cut-off point.

 

[NZTailender]

Interesting stuff, Goughy. Can you do them for Hadlee, Donald, Cairns and Vaas?

 

[adharcric]

Love it Goughy - Lohmann, Hadlee and Kumble please.

 

[vic_orthdox]

Here's one that might be relevant to another thread:

G. Sobers.

 

[chaminda_00]

The SM still number one i think:

GA Lohmann: 15.51 (Weighted average)
SR Clark: 16.55....Interesting

Is it possible to have a gap between 45-60 and 60-75. I think the pitches where a lot different in those two eras. Mainly based on Laker 10-fer though.

 

[wpdavid]

I think this is a fantasic idea, albeit with a few minor issues.

I'm not sure about the no draws bit. Sometimes drawn games say something about the ability or consistency of the bowler. Or about the lack of support from the rest of the attack. Also, haven't there been 4 day test matches (or even 3?) which made a draw more likely?

The other thing is that it doesn't fully take into account where bowlers actually played their test cricket. So Lillee, for instance, benefits from hardly playing any tests in the subcontinent, whereas McGrath went there and did well. I don't think Trueman played a single tets there, either.

I suppose fully scientific approach would look at the global averages in each of the countries where they played in each period, but that might take some doing.

 

[Goughy]

Hmm... seems pretty good to me. The periods seem a bit arbitrary though. Maybe decades would be a better and more objective cut-off point.

The periods may seem arbitrary but there is logic there I assure you.

19th C- Speaks for itsself
Pre-WWI- End of the Golden Era
Inter-War- Had a cricketing character of its own
45-75- Era of the balanced attack. 1975 was just about when Lillee and Thompson came together and started the rise (inc WI) of the fast bowler
75-90- Fast bowlers roamed the world and WI dominateded cricket
90s- Begining of the end of WI domination and the rise of Australia. Also as getting closer to current time, can do decades
2000s- Current cricket

 

[Goughy]

Hadlee
Test Av = 22.29
Standardised Av = 20.12