This could sound controversial but...

[Johnners]

As successful as the current team is... i do beleive that the selectors need to make some seemingly harsh decisions. IMO they made the wrong call to bring Martyn back into the test squad for SA in the 1st place. Hodge, Clarke or Watson should've been given the spot so as to help avoid a mass exodus as Craigos mentioned.

I would've be suprised if Langer retires after the ashes series, as iirc he released a statment not that long ago saying that he was seriously considering making this test series his last. If he does indeed retire, imo it'll be for the greater good of the future of Australian cricket. As much as i'm a fan of Langers, we need to start getting some fresh blood into the team asap, and with Jaques around we have a more than worthy replacement.

I wouldn't be at all suprised if Gilly made the WC his final tournament either, and the same goes for Martyn. In which case, Haddin & 2 of Clarke, Hodge or Watson (whichever isn't already in the team) will most likely take their places.

The 3 players that'll probably stay around the longest are Haydos, Warne & McGrath. All three have made it public that they beleive they can play in the '09 ashes in england. Warne & McGrath will play as long as they want to, as i doubt whether the selectors would have the balls to drop them even if they were 37/38/39 and were in terrible form, but hopefully it doesn't get to that case, and both will retire gracefully. In any case, i don't expect to see either in the '09 ashes, as imo they'll both retire either next year, or in '08.

Haydos on the other hand i can see being dropped sometime in the next 2 years unfortunately. The fact that he's still trying to break back into the ODI team, and make comments such as "i still have a lot to offer to Australian Cricket" (or words to that effect) suggests to me that he has no plans of retirement anytime soon, despite a drop in form in his last 6/7 tests (yes he's made starts, but thats not good enough). I hope that he does retire of his own accord as well, as seeing him dropped would be a sad day.

 

[Mr Mxyzptlk]

Oh, I think there will definatley be a downfall. I'm just saying it wouldn't be appropriate to drop someone who just averaged 80 in the last year or something.

Your test team should not be a place to 'develop' the talent. They should already be fairly good by the time they reach you, in terms of experience and development.

You don't start chopping all the older players simply because they're old, but you do look to blood younger players whenever possible. And I don't believe that ODI cricket is necessarily the place to do so. You don't develop talent from a low level in Test cricket, but it is a means to develop productive players from merely talented players.

Talent and domestic production gets players into the team. Production is what should keep them there. And that can't be expected to occur immediately. The likes of Shane Watson and Shaun Tait being in and around the Test team are a suggestion that Australia realizes this - finally.

 

[Mr Mxyzptlk]

OK, fair enough. But was there really? I mean even after most of the stall warts of the 80's left, you still had Ambrose/Walsh/Lara up until this century almost where there was plenty of time for others to develop...who has?

That's one batsman and two bowlers. The bowling attack was still in relatively good shape until the end of the 90s.

Lara may be an awesome player, but he can't carry a batting lineup.

Actually, I agree with you. There definately will be a downfall when they retire. Its probably inevitable. But the question is will it be much better if the older players are axed while still performing?

You integrate youth with experience. That's the way.

 

[Matt79]

I don't think the exodus will be all at once, and even if it is, there are good quality short term replacements to provide some cover while long term options are identified.

Likely to retirement in the next 18 months-(At least)Short Term Replacement
McGrath-Bracken/Johnson/Tait (odds are at least one of the three will turn into a decent test bowler)
Gilchrist-Haddin
Martyn-Hodge
Langer-Jaques

Likely to retire with no real alternative
Warne (because MacGill isn't likely to play more than a year longer than Warne IMO). Although Warne may not retire for 2 or 3 years.
Hayden. After Jaques the opener situation isn't so clear cut, but Rogers has played well for a long time now and would be worth trying out at least.

Not going anywhere for a while (barring injury or catestrophic loss of form Gillespie style)
Ponting - will play for at least another 3 years IMO, might drop down the order at some stage
Hussey - waited so long and so completely owns his game, he'll play on til mid-to-late 30s.
Lee - another 2 or 3 years at least I'd have thought.
Clark - looks durable and to have the right stuff.
Watson - if he can ever stay on the park, should be serviceable and fulfill a role, if not much more (but hopefully more)

Next rung coming through: the short term replacements will hopefully give them time to develop:
Clarke - can learn some of the craft of batting to go with his talent hopefully.
Cosgrove - seems to be developing nicely.
Moises Henriques - Needs another season or two, and then looks set to make the Watson/Clarke/Symonds dilemma academic.
Cullen/Bailey - here's hoping one of them goes on and develops.

We'll suffer a decline, probably, but it won't be an Aussie mid-80s style crash, or a Windies in the 21st century clash. Players like Jaques, Cosgrove, and Cullen have received so much experience already, and coaching, and are learning all about their games, so that when they're called up they'll be players who can call upon that knowledge - in the vein of Hussey, if not realistically all as successfully.

 

[FaaipDeOiad]

You don't start chopping all the older players simply because they're old, but you do look to blood younger players whenever possible. And I don't believe that ODI cricket is necessarily the place to do so. You don't develop talent from a low level in Test cricket, but it is a means to develop productive players from merely talented players.

Talent and domestic production gets players into the team. Production is what should keep them there. And that can't be expected to occur immediately. The likes of Shane Watson and Shaun Tait being in and around the Test team are a suggestion that Australia realizes this - finally.

I think Australia has always realised that, what makes you think they haven't? That's one of the reasons Australia has been so successful for so long, in fact. Almost every senior member of the current team was inducted in some way or another into a successful Australian team when young. Hayden, Langer, Martyn and Ponting all had indifferent periods as a young player in a strong side which served them well as they developed, and all of them were dropped from the team at some point or another to continue to improve their game. The same is true of Steve Waugh and so on as well, and Michael Clarke and Shane Watson are more recent examples of this that has yet to bear fruit. Drafted into the team early on based on talent, and given game time to aid their development in combination with domestic cricket.

 

[FaaipDeOiad]

Anyway, on the subject of the thread, I don't think there's any desperate need to drop players who are still performing. The key is to give young players who are potential replacements game time whenever possible. Australia has made an effort to do this with the likes of Johnson, Clarke, Watson, Jaques, Cullen and Cosgrove, mostly through the ODI side, and it should pay off when the inevitable exodus occurs. As we saw in the PMs XI game (for example) and week by week in domestic cricket, there's plenty of talent available in Australia, and we certainly have enviable depth, regardless of how strong you think it actually is. While Australia will slip somewhat when all-time great players leave the team, the likes of Haddin and Jaques are players who most test nations wish they had available, and to have Birt and Cosgrove around 5th in line for a test spot is a great situation to be in. I doubt Australia will see a really significant drop in performance outside of the spin and possibly fast bowling departments.

I don't think the current bunch will retire all at once though, for a number of reasons. For a start, many retirements are forced by a drop in form, and that will be true of some of the current players as well. Hayden and Langer have come under pressure in the last 12 months after indifferent form, and they've managed to hang on to their place, while Martyn was dropped and then recalled, as were Kasprowicz and Gillespie who are now gone. I think a number of players will call it a day in ODIs after the World Cup, but there's plenty of cover in that form, and they will seek to play on in tests. Australia has solid backup already with some experience for a few spots in the team, so the key is to keep a close eye on current players, dispose of them as their form becomes a liability, and bring in new blood when possible. If a few players leave the side you simply start the process over.

Contrary to popular opinion, I think Australia has done an excellent job of this as well, so far. Look at the likes of Bevan and Lehmann - players who were key elements of the ODI side who were dropped as soon as their form suggested it. Harsh certainly, but not stupid and it didn't weaken the side significantly. I'm sure if Langer or Martyn or someone has a poor run of form they will be removed and replaced with Jaques or Hodge or Clarke, and the team will be better off for it. Dropping them now merely because of their age, or after the Ashes if they have a good series, would be counter-productive.

 

[Perm]

I can see Martyn or Langer being "dropped" first because the public aren't as appreciative of them as they are of Ponting and Hussey. I also think Ponting, Hussey, Warne and McGrath will carry on till they are about 39 maybe even past 40. Langer, Hayden and Martyn won't be given the chance I don't feel.

 

[Johnners]

Hayden. After Jaques the opener situation isn't so clear cut, but Rogers has played well for a long time now and would be worth trying out at least.

IMO when Haydos retires, unless there is another younger batsmen absolutely Killing at Domestic level, Hussey should be moved up to open, and then either Cosgrove, Clarke, Birt, Hodge, Watson (whoevers in form, and not already in the team) could move into bat at 5.

Tim Paine & Callum Ferguson look promising as well imo. Both need to convert their starts though before they can make any serious inroads up the pecking order.

 

[aussie]

The West Indies were the best team in the world. Then all the great players retired within a short span of time. Haven't come close to recovering yet.

The reason for that i think is because at that time when the Windies were running things in the world cricket the selectors weren't really paying attention to the development of the next generation & so even though very talented players have come out of the windies since 95 they have struggled because of the structure at youth & domestic level.

Its very clear that Australia are paying keen attention to that area & IMO when the Warne, McGrath, Langer, Martyn, MacGill, Hayden go with in the next 5 years Australia will still be a competitive force & won't decline to a similar low as the windies.

 

[FaaipDeOiad]

IMO when Haydos retires, unless there is another younger batsmen absolutely Killing at Domestic level, Hussey should be moved up to open, and then either Cosgrove, Clarke, Birt, Hodge, Watson (whoevers in form, and not already in the team) could move into bat at 5.

Tim Paine & Callum Ferguson look promising as well imo. Both need to convert their starts though before they can make any serious inroads up the pecking order.

I don't really like Hussey opening in tests. I'm sure he can do it, but he just looks very shaky against the new ball sometimes. I'd rather him at 5, unless there's no other good options.

Shaun Marsh is another one you could put in that list, incidentally. He's never really set the world alight with his domestic scores, but he looks unbelievably good every time I see him. I get the feeling he'll go to England one season and absolutely dominate, and may get a late entry to the test side.

 

[sqwerty]

Worth noting that Australia does have a much better grassroots system in place and therefore will likely not fall off as dramatically as the West Indies did, but there will more than likely still be a downfall of sorts. You can't just thrust an inexperienced team into international cricket and expect the players to dominate immediately. No matter how talented the players are, it simply does not work that way.

This is true. Australia won't fall to the depths that WI did simply because they won't let themselves. In Australia sport is very important and money is thrown at it to make sure it succeeds.

 

[sqwerty]

I don't really like Hussey opening in tests. I'm sure he can do it, but he just looks very shaky against the new ball sometimes. I'd rather him at 5, unless there's no other good options.

Shaun Marsh is another one you could put in that list, incidentally. He's never really set the world alight with his domestic scores, but he looks unbelievably good every time I see him. I get the feeling he'll go to England one season and absolutely dominate, and may get a late entry to the test side.

I think if Hussey was made to open permanently he'd pretty soon establish himself as the no.1 opener in the world. It's not like he hasn't played there before and his technique is rock solid.

 

[Johnners]

I don't really like Hussey opening in tests. I'm sure he can do it, but he just looks very shaky against the new ball sometimes. I'd rather him at 5, unless there's no other good options.
Shaun Marsh is another one you could put in that list, incidentally. He's never really set the world alight with his domestic scores, but he looks unbelievably good every time I see him. I get the feeling he'll go to England one season and absolutely dominate, and may get a late entry to the test side.

Agreed on that count, probably didn't make it as clear though. Tim Paine looks a promising opener though, he is only 21, and has been in pretty decent form this year. Lets hope he can continue to improve.

I'm no so sure about Marsh, i've no doubt he has talent, but every time i think he's starting to realise his potential, he makes a string of bad performances. Another name that comes to mind is Lloyd Mash. He seems to be doing just not to bad for Victoria. Thoughts from those who've seen him play??

 

[chaminda_00]

Personally i don't think there is that many really good youngsters in Australian Cricket pushing for selection over the current bunch. I can see Australia going back to short term options like Katich, Hodge, Clark, Bracken etc before they go to all these youngsters.

In another couple years we'll be having the same debate about Pointing, Hussey, Lee, Katich, Hodge, Clark etc being too old and Australia need to look at blooding in some youngsters and by that time IMO Marsh, Voges, Paine, Phillipson etc will be dominanting the domestic comp and will be ready to play Test Cricket.

ATM outside Jaques, Clarke, Watson, Cosgrove and Johnson i don't think any are really ready to play Test Cricket and i doubt any more will be ready will be ready by two years time, maybe Tait (if he has injury free season) and Rogers.

The spin options are really the biggest worry for Australia. They have a lot of guys who are only ever going to be good domestic bowlers. No one out of the current bunch looks like coming close to be Test quality.

 

[Craig]

As successful as the current team is... i do beleive that the selectors need to make some seemingly harsh decisions. IMO they made the wrong call to bring Martyn back into the test squad for SA in the 1st place. Hodge, Clarke or Watson should've been given the spot so as to help avoid a mass exodus as Craigos mentioned.

I would've be suprised if Langer retires after the ashes series, as iirc he released a statment not that long ago saying that he was seriously considering making this test series his last. If he does indeed retire, imo it'll be for the greater good of the future of Australian cricket. As much as i'm a fan of Langers, we need to start getting some fresh blood into the team asap, and with Jaques around we have a more than worthy replacement.

I wouldn't be at all suprised if Gilly made the WC his final tournament either, and the same goes for Martyn. In which case, Haddin & 2 of Clarke, Hodge or Watson (whichever isn't already in the team) will most likely take their places.

The 3 players that'll probably stay around the longest are Haydos, Warne & McGrath. All three have made it public that they beleive they can play in the '09 ashes in england. Warne & McGrath will play as long as they want to, as i doubt whether the selectors would have the balls to drop them even if they were 37/38/39 and were in terrible form, but hopefully it doesn't get to that case, and both will retire gracefully. In any case, i don't expect to see either in the '09 ashes, as imo they'll both retire either next year, or in '08.

Haydos on the other hand i can see being dropped sometime in the next 2 years unfortunately. The fact that he's still trying to break back into the ODI team, and make comments such as "i still have a lot to offer to Australian Cricket" (or words to that effect) suggests to me that he has no plans of retirement anytime soon, despite a drop in form in his last 6/7 tests (yes he's made starts, but thats not good enough). I hope that he does retire of his own accord as well, as seeing him dropped would be a sad day.

True, but they did it to Steve Waugh

 

[Craig]

As for Chris Rogers am I the only one who feels he at this stage a flat track bully on some fine batting roads?

 

[Johnners]

True, but they did it to Steve Waugh

They dropped Steve from the ODI team, but imo it's an entirely different scenario dropping a player from the ODI team than it is from the Test Team.

As for Chris Rogers am I the only one who feels he at this stage a flat track bully on some fine batting roads?

To a certain extent yes. He's no doubt a good player, but he's being made look even better thanks to the WACA.

 

[chaminda_00]

As for Chris Rogers am I the only one who feels he at this stage a flat track bully on some fine batting roads?

TBF he does score runs on all types pitches in Australia and England.

 

[adharcric]

Langer will likely retire after the Ashes. Martyn will be dropped for Clarke or Hodge in 2007.
Hayden, Gilchrist, Warne and McGrath will likely retire after the next Ashes unless they somehow get owned in the near future.
Ponting, Hussey and Lee should go on for 5 years at least.

 

[FaaipDeOiad]

Langer won't retire after the Ashes, not now, barring serious injury. The guy loves playing for Australia more than anyone else in the team IMO, and it'll take being dropped or a few more years in the game before he voluntarily gives it away.

The most likely ones to go are Martyn and Gilchrist. Gilchrist is always talking about retirement, complaining about the amount of cricket played and being rested from tours, and he'll give it away as soon as it's not enjoyable any more. Even a serious run of poor form like he had in the second half of last year could end it for him.

Martyn won't give it away so easily, but he may well get dropped and if he does we will have seen the last of him.

Martyn, McGrath and maybe Gilchrist will retire from ODIs after the 2007 WC, I think, but McGrath at least will stay on in tests.