NZTailender said:
What about players who have had a somewhat poorer FC record to their international team mates yet excelled in that arena, after somehow getting a call up?
This is based on some work I did a little while ago. To me it clearly proves that FC averages are an indiction of ablity. ie you cant be great in Tests if not great in FC
Hypothosis 1
Of the players that average 50 or more in tests how many average 45 or less in non-test FC cricket. ie how many palyers have great Test careers with less than exceptional FC careers.
Players Specialist Batsmen only
Compton, Viv Richards, Border, Yousuf, S. Waugh, Gavaskar, Ul-Haq, Sehwag, Miandad, Lara, G. Chappell, Hayden, Tendulkar, Hutton, Walcott, Kallis, Hobbs, Sobers, Dravid, Ponting, Hammond, Weekes, Barrington, Sutcliffe, Bradman.
Batsmen with non-test FC average greater than 45
= 23 total = 92%
Batsmen with average less 45
= 2 total = 8%
Clearly showing it is very unlikely to go from good in FC to great in Tests.
Hypothosis 2
Even very good players have a Test average less than their FC average.
Players Specialist Batsmen only
Test average 40-50. 32 Players looked at.
Test average lower than non-test FC average
= 21 Total = 66%
Test average above non-test FC average
= 11 Total = 34%
There is a clear link that players average better in FC than in Tests. However, it is clearly not all players.
Hypothosis 3
Players that average 40-50 in Test cricket and average more in Tests do so only marginally. Few players average over 5 more in Tests than in FC
Players Specialist Batsmen only
H. Gibbs, Trescothick, B. Mitchell, Walters, Dexter, R. Richardson, Viswanath, Jayasuriya, M. Taylor, C. Cowdrey, Gower
Batsmen that average less than 5 more runs in Tests
= 6 total = 55%
Batsmen that average more than 5 more runs in Tests
= 5 total = 45 %
The difference in this is relatively small.
Conclusion
However taken as a group, 27 of the group that averaged 40-50 in test cricket averaged more in FC or if less then marginally so. That is 84%. Only 16% went from an average FC career to good FC career.
Clearly it is not 100% inclusive, but FC average gives and indiction of potential performance in Test cricket. Effectively, the bestter a FC average the better the chance of having a very good Test career.
Taking the players that average 50 or more (non of which have a bad FC record), 57 players were looked at and 5 went on to have a good-great test career with a poor FC record.
The moral of the story. Pick players with good FC records as poor FC records = Failure at test level unless named Trescothick, Gower, Richie Richardson, Dexter, Walters
A great FC record is no guarantee of high-level Test success but it is a condition of entry.
NB- Before it is mentioned, Vaughan was not included as there are so many guys averaging 40-45 (all 45-50 players were included) that only a large but random selection was taken