Who'll take the most wickets this year?

[Richard]

http://uk.cricinfo.com/db/FORTHCOMING/YEARLY_CRICKET_CALENDAR.html

By that reckoning its:

Australia - 4
Bangladesh - 0
England - 11
India - 4
New Zealand - 2
Pakistan - 4
South Africa - 2
Sri Lanka - 3
West Indies - 4
Zimbabwe - 0 (obviously)

However there's also the following tours not scheduled:

SA in SL (presumably 2 Tests)
India in SL (presumably 2 Tests)
India in Bangladesh (presumably 2 Tests)
WI in Pakistan (3?)
India in SA (2 or 3, depending on when the cut off for the new year is)
Bangladesh in NZ (probably 2)

That makes Murali a good bet for this year - probably 7 more games is about 45-50 wickets if he stays fit, putting him at about the 70 mark.

To beat that, Ntini would need 41 in 6 or 7, Warne 42 in 4, Asif 45 in 7, Kumble 45 in 8 or Hoggard 57 in 11!

Just imagine how many wickets Ntini might (and only might) get were SA to tour Eng this summer instead of Pak.

 

[marc71178]

Thing is if he were to be doing that then at least one other tour wouldn't happen.

 

[Richard]

Yes, I know that. Chances are, though, it'd be 3 Tests (or 2) being replaced by 5.

 

[marc71178]

Except it'd be replaced by 4.

 

[Richard]

That's not a certain.
When was the last time Eng and SA played a series of less than 5 Tests?
1994.
And that's the only time since readmission.

 

[marc71178]

When has the ECB ever scheduled a 2 Test series against non-Bangladesh/Zimbabwe?

Only once, and that was an Ashes year.

If there's 2 of the bigger nations, it's a 3 and a 4.

 

[Richard]

They've scheduled one-off Tests, though (and so did their predecessor), before ICC rightly abolished them.

 

[marc71178]

So I ask again, when have they scheduled a 2 Test series against a side that isn't one of the weaker ones.

Aside from Pakistan (which was Ashes-related) that'll be never.

 

[Richard]

And I ask again - when have they scheduled single Tests in the days when they were allowed to?
That'll be several times, most recently in 1998 so as to fit-in a five-Tester against... South Africa.
The team sidelined, incidentally, only happened to be the World Champions. Such a weak side, that was never going to be a serious drawcard.
I find it perfectly conceivable that, were Sri Lanka and South Africa the tourists, it'd be 5-2, as it was in 2000 when it was non-weak Zimbabwe and West Indies.
The system has only been tested on 4 occasions - we've had 7-Test summers on 7 occasions (including the just-commenced), 2 of which have been Ashes, and 1 other of which has been the hosting of a substandard team (2003). Only in 2002 (Sri Lanka and India), 2004 (New Zealand and West Indies) and 2006 (Sri Lanka and Pakistan) have two teams of roughly equal strength and stature toured. It would make no sense to not split these 3 duos as equally as possible.
It would, however, make sense to split some others lop-sidedly - for instance, if South Africa or Australia were involved.