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Player's Averages - What will they end with?

Jono

Virat Kohli (c)
I thought this would be an interesting thread to do, especially after the Boxing Day test when Gilly's batting average fell below 50 when less than a year ago it was around 55. Additionally many believe players are in current decline, such as Tendulkar. Will his average fall at all the longer he plays? It hasn't fallen at the moment. Then there is Inzy, Dravid, Ponting and Kallis who continue piling on the runs year after year. I was watching the India vs. Australia Adelaide test of 2003/04 on tape a week or so ago and noticed at that time Dravid had an average of around 53. Since then, pretty much 2 years later, he's managed to boost it to over 57.

Obviously statistics and averages don't say everything about a player, and it is mostly guesswork and wild predictions, but I think it'll be quite interesting. Especially with peaks and troughs in players careers, and some going on too long, the great Viv being an often mentioned example. So I'll just nominate a few players (I've done 2 batsman and bowlers from each nation I though would be interesting to predict), and you can add whomever you think will be interesting to do as well. I've mostly chosen fairly experienced players who are well into their career rather than young ones, so I guess most guesswork will be in regards to whether the players will heavily decline from here on end. There are some young players also though.

Note: All are test match averages only. I didn’t bother to do non-minnow averages.

Batsmen:
Adam Gilchrist (Current Average: 49.81)
Ricky Ponting (Current Average: 56.27)
Sachin Tendulkar (Current Average: 56.72)
Virender Sehwag (Current Average: 53.55)
Michael Vaughan (Current Average: 42.94)
Marcus Trescothick (Current Average: 45.47)
Inzamam Ul Haq (Current Average: 51.61)
Shahid Afridi (Current Average: 35.83)
Graeme Smith (Current Average: 52.72)
Jaques Kallis (Current Average: 56.45)
Stephen Fleming (Current Average: 39.03)
Jacob Oram (Current Average: 43.57)
Kumar Sangakkara (Current Average: 46.61)
Mahela Jayawardene (Current Average: 47.80)
Chris Gayle (Current Average: 38.79)
Shivnarine Chanderpaul (Current Average: 45.94)

Bowlers:
Brett Lee (Current Average: 31.85)
Stuart MacGill (Current Average: 27.82)
Irfan Pathan (Current Average: 26.14)
Harbhajan Singh (Current Average: 27.88)
Andrew Flintoff (Current Average: 31.52)
Stephen Harmison (Current Average: 28.72)
Shoaib Akhtar (Current Average: 24.76)
Danish Kaneria (Current Average: 30.56)
Makhaya Ntini (Current Average: 29.22)
Shaun Pollock (Current Average: 22.40)
Shane Bond (Current Average: 20.80)
Daniel Vettori (Current Average: 34.84)
Murali (Current Average: 22.40)
Chaminda Vaas (Current Average: 28.73)
Dwayne Bravo (Current Average: 33.11)
Corey Collymore (Current Average: 31.37)
 

howardj

International Coach
Interesting.

Out of the batsmen, I think Ponting and Kallis could both push 60 by the time they retire.
 

a massive zebra

International Captain
Batsmen:
Adam Gilchrist (Current Average: 49.81) My prediction 46
Ricky Ponting (Current Average: 56.27) My prediction 51
Sachin Tendulkar (Current Average: 56.72) " " 55
Virender Sehwag (Current Average: 53.55) " " 48
Michael Vaughan (Current Average: 42.94) " " 40
Marcus Trescothick (Current Average: 45.47) " " 44
Inzamam Ul Haq (Current Average: 51.61) " " 52
Shahid Afridi (Current Average: 35.83) " " 34
Graeme Smith (Current Average: 52.72) " " 45
Jaques Kallis (Current Average: 56.45) " " 52
Stephen Fleming (Current Average: 39.03) " " 37
Jacob Oram (Current Average: 43.57) " " 32
Kumar Sangakkara (Current Average: 46.61) " " 45
Mahela Jayawardene (Current Average: 47.80) " " 42
Chris Gayle (Current Average: 38.79) " " 36
Shivnarine Chanderpaul (Current Average: 45.94) " " 47

Bowlers:
Brett Lee (Current Average: 31.85) " " 32
Stuart MacGill (Current Average: 27.82) " " 29
Irfan Pathan (Current Average: 26.14) " " 30
Harbhajan Singh (Current Average: 27.88) " " 28
Andrew Flintoff (Current Average: 31.52) " " 28
Stephen Harmison (Current Average: 28.72) " " 31
Shoaib Akhtar (Current Average: 24.76) " " 25
Danish Kaneria (Current Average: 30.56) " " 27
Makhaya Ntini (Current Average: 29.22) " " 29
Shaun Pollock (Current Average: 22.40) " " 23
Shane Bond (Current Average: 20.80) " " 25
Daniel Vettori (Current Average: 34.84) " " 37
Murali (Current Average: 22.40) " " 22
Chaminda Vaas (Current Average: 28.73) " " 29
Dwayne Bravo (Current Average: 33.11) " " 32
Corey Collymore (Current Average: 31.37) " " 33
 

greg

International Debutant
a massive zebra said:
Batsmen:
Adam Gilchrist (Current Average: 49.81) My prediction 46
Ricky Ponting (Current Average: 56.27) My prediction 51
Sachin Tendulkar (Current Average: 56.72) " " 55
Virender Sehwag (Current Average: 53.55) " " 48
Michael Vaughan (Current Average: 42.94) " " 40
Marcus Trescothick (Current Average: 45.47) " " 44
Inzamam Ul Haq (Current Average: 51.61) " " 52
Shahid Afridi (Current Average: 35.83) " " 34
Graeme Smith (Current Average: 52.72) " " 45
Jaques Kallis (Current Average: 56.45) " " 52
Stephen Fleming (Current Average: 39.03) " " 37
Jacob Oram (Current Average: 43.57) " " 32
Kumar Sangakkara (Current Average: 46.61) " " 45
Mahela Jayawardene (Current Average: 47.80) " " 42
Chris Gayle (Current Average: 38.79) " " 36
Shivnarine Chanderpaul (Current Average: 45.94) " " 47

Bowlers:
Brett Lee (Current Average: 31.85) " " 32
Stuart MacGill (Current Average: 27.82) " " 29
Irfan Pathan (Current Average: 26.14) " " 30
Harbhajan Singh (Current Average: 27.88) " " 28
Andrew Flintoff (Current Average: 31.52) " " 28
Stephen Harmison (Current Average: 28.72) " " 31
Shoaib Akhtar (Current Average: 24.76) " " 25
Danish Kaneria (Current Average: 30.56) " " 27
Makhaya Ntini (Current Average: 29.22) " " 29
Shaun Pollock (Current Average: 22.40) " " 23
Shane Bond (Current Average: 20.80) " " 25
Daniel Vettori (Current Average: 34.84) " " 37
Murali (Current Average: 22.40) " " 22
Chaminda Vaas (Current Average: 28.73) " " 29
Dwayne Bravo (Current Average: 33.11) " " 32
Corey Collymore (Current Average: 31.37) " " 33
So virtually every leading batsman's average is going to go down, some dramatically. Virtually every leading bowler's average is going to go up, some dramatically.

Hmm.
 

dontcloseyoureyes

BARNES OUT
greg said:
So virtually every leading batsman's average is going to go down, some dramatically. Virtually every leading bowler's average is going to go up, some dramatically.

Hmm.
Yes, I also found his predictions to be ridiculous,
 

Sudeep

International Captain
Adam Gilchrist (Current Average: 49.81) - 48
Ricky Ponting (Current Average: 56.27) - 58
Sachin Tendulkar (Current Average: 56.72) - 57
Virender Sehwag (Current Average: 53.55) - 50
Michael Vaughan (Current Average: 42.94) - 43
Marcus Trescothick (Current Average: 45.47) - 43
Inzamam Ul Haq (Current Average: 51.61) - 53
Shahid Afridi (Current Average: 35.83) - 38
Graeme Smith (Current Average: 52.72) - 53
Jaques Kallis (Current Average: 56.45) - 55
Stephen Fleming (Current Average: 39.03) - 38
Jacob Oram (Current Average: 43.57) - 40
Kumar Sangakkara (Current Average: 46.61) - 45
Mahela Jayawardene (Current Average: 47.80) - 48
Chris Gayle (Current Average: 38.79) - 40
Shivnarine Chanderpaul (Current Average: 45.94) - 46
 

Jono

Virat Kohli (c)
I've had a crack at the players I chose. Some have had drastic changes, some I haven't really changed much.

Batsmen:
Adam Gilchrist (Final Predicted Average: 47-48) Down 1-2
Ricky Ponting (Final Predicted Average: 57-58) Up 1-2
Sachin Tendulkar (Final Predicted Average: 56-57) Same
Virender Sehwag (Final Predicted Average: 55-56) Up 2-3
Michael Vaughan (Final Predicted Average: 40-41) Down 1-2
Marcus Trescothick (Final Predicted Average: 48-49) Up 3-4
Inzamam Ul Haq (Final Predicted Average: 52-53) Up 1-2
Shahid Afridi (Final Predicted Average: 38-39) Up 3-4
Graeme Smith (Final Predicted Average: 49-50) Down 2-3
Jaques Kallis (Final Predicted Average: 59-60) Up 3-4
Stephen Fleming (Final Predicted Average: 37-38) Down 1-2
Jacob Oram (Final Predicted Average: 40-41) Down 1
Kumar Sangakkara (Final Predicted Average: 49-50) Up 3-4
Mahela Jayawardene (Final Predicted Average: 46-47) Up 1
Chris Gayle (Final Predicted Average: 39-40) Up 1
Shivnarine Chanderpaul (Final Predicted Average: 43-44) Down 1-2

Bowlers:
Brett Lee (Final Predicted Average: 29-30) Down 1-2
Stuart MacGill (Final Predicted Average: 28-29) Up 1-2
Irfan Pathan (Final Predicted Average: 27-28) Up 1-2
Harbhajan Singh (Final Predicted Average: 25-26) Down 1-2
Andrew Flintoff (Final Predicted Average: 25-26) Down 5-6
Stephen Harmison (Final Predicted Average: 29-30) Up 1-2
Shoaib Akhtar (Final Predicted Average: 23-24) Down 1
Danish Kaneria (Final Predicted Average: 24-25) Down 5-6
Makhaya Ntini (Final Predicted Average: 26-27) Down 4-5
Shaun Pollock (Final Predicted Average: 22-23) Same
Shane Bond (Final Predicted Average: 25-26) Up 5-6 (Well he has to, can’t really improve from an average of 20 from 12 matches :p)
Daniel Vettori (Final Predicted Average: 28-29) Down 5-6
Murali (Final Predicted Average: 21-22) Same
Chaminda Vaas (Final Predicted Average: 29-30) Up 1
Dwayne Bravo (Final Predicted Average: 28-29) Down 4-5
Corey Collymore (Final Predicted Average: 30-31) Down 1

Interesting I figured most bowlers would improve wheras I saw quite a few batsman dropping off. I never knew Vaughan's average was so low actually. That's quite amazing. At the same time I never knew Jayawardene's was so high.
 
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a massive zebra

International Captain
Just my opinion - it may be completely wrong. :)

Gilchrist has a lot of work to do if he is to maintain his 50 average, Smith only averages that high because he had a great start and his performances have now reached a consistent plateau, Jayawardene is not good enough to average 47, Ponting and Kallis are not good enough to average 56, Flintoff is a quality bowler whose figures have suffered from being picked too early, Pathan will not keep up his excellent average as it is mainly based on minnow-basing, Murali is a legend, Pollock is in decline but near the end, Bravo is an intelligent bowler, Shoaib has the ability to be an all-time great ...........

Just my opinion. :)
 
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Jono

Virat Kohli (c)
You see, I also was very surprised at Jayawardene's average. But the way I see it, he's averaged that for so long, and I don't see him dwindling any time soon actually. Whether it be minnow bashing, or scoring really well and then going into periods of low scores which is holding his average high, he's going to get better with maturity IMO. I reckon he'll keep it if not improve a little. Maybe I'm wrong though *shrugs*
 

Tom Halsey

International Coach
Batsmen:
Adam Gilchrist (Current Average: 49.81) - 50
Ricky Ponting (Current Average: 56.27) - 54
Sachin Tendulkar (Current Average: 56.72) - 56
Virender Sehwag (Current Average: 53.55) - 56
Michael Vaughan (Current Average: 42.94) - 40
Marcus Trescothick (Current Average: 45.47) - 46
Inzamam Ul Haq (Current Average: 51.61) - 52
Shahid Afridi (Current Average: 35.83) - 39
Graeme Smith (Current Average: 52.72) - 47
Jaques Kallis (Current Average: 56.45) - 58
Stephen Fleming (Current Average: 39.03) - 40
Jacob Oram (Current Average: 43.57) - 45
Kumar Sangakkara (Current Average: 46.61) - 46
Mahela Jayawardene (Current Average: 47.80) - 49
Chris Gayle (Current Average: 38.79) - 41
Shivnarine Chanderpaul (Current Average: 45.94) - 47

Bowlers:
Brett Lee (Current Average: 31.85) - 29
Stuart MacGill (Current Average: 27.82) - 29
Irfan Pathan (Current Average: 26.14) - 25
Harbhajan Singh (Current Average: 27.88) - 25
Andrew Flintoff (Current Average: 31.52) - 24
Stephen Harmison (Current Average: 28.72) - 29
Shoaib Akhtar (Current Average: 24.76) - 23
Danish Kaneria (Current Average: 30.56) - 28
Makhaya Ntini (Current Average: 29.22) - 26
Shaun Pollock (Current Average: 22.40) - 23
Shane Bond (Current Average: 20.80) - 25
Daniel Vettori (Current Average: 34.84) - 33
Murali (Current Average: 22.40) - 20
Chaminda Vaas (Current Average: 28.73) - 29
Dwayne Bravo (Current Average: 33.11) - 28
Corey Collymore (Current Average: 31.37) - 29
 
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a massive zebra

International Captain
To finish with a career average of 28 Vettori is going to have to average around 20 for the rest of his career, but for almost two years between 2002 and 2004 his figure was around the 70 mark.

If Vettori averages 28 in his career I will eat my computer.
 

Jono

Virat Kohli (c)
Fair enough, maybe a tad bit drastic but I do see his average improving. I can't see it going up to 37, that's for sure. He's by far a better bowler today than 2-3 years ago.
 

Tom Halsey

International Coach
Yeah I'd agree actually, not sure what I was doing when I put 37. But I still can't see it being sub-30 at all.
 

Robertinho

Cricketer Of The Year
Batsmen:
Adam Gilchrist (Current Average: 49.81) - 52
Ricky Ponting (Current Average: 56.27) - 58
Sachin Tendulkar (Current Average: 56.72) - 55
Virender Sehwag (Current Average: 53.55) - 55
Michael Vaughan (Current Average: 42.94) - 40
Marcus Trescothick (Current Average: 45.47) - 48
Inzamam Ul Haq (Current Average: 51.61) - 53
Shahid Afridi (Current Average: 35.83) - 38
Graeme Smith (Current Average: 52.72) - 54
Jaques Kallis (Current Average: 56.45) - 58
Stephen Fleming (Current Average: 39.03) - 38
Jacob Oram (Current Average: 43.57) - 35
Kumar Sangakkara (Current Average: 46.61) - 50
Mahela Jayawardene (Current Average: 47.80) - 46
Chris Gayle (Current Average: 38.79) - 45
Shivnarine Chanderpaul (Current Average: 45.94) - 46

Bowlers:
Brett Lee (Current Average: 31.85) - 30
Stuart MacGill (Current Average: 27.82) - 27
Irfan Pathan (Current Average: 26.14) - 23
Harbhajan Singh (Current Average: 27.88) - 29
Andrew Flintoff (Current Average: 31.52) - 26
Stephen Harmison (Current Average: 28.72) - 28
Shoaib Akhtar (Current Average: 24.76) - 22
Danish Kaneria (Current Average: 30.56) - 29
Makhaya Ntini (Current Average: 29.22) - 25
Shaun Pollock (Current Average: 22.40) - 24
Shane Bond (Current Average: 20.80) - 24
Daniel Vettori (Current Average: 34.84) - 33
Murali (Current Average: 22.40) - 21
Chaminda Vaas (Current Average: 28.73) - 28
Dwayne Bravo (Current Average: 33.11) - 28
Corey Collymore (Current Average: 31.37) - 30
 

Jono

Virat Kohli (c)
Tom Halsey said:
Yeah I'd agree actually, not sure what I was doing when I put 37. But I still can't see it being sub-30 at all.
Yeah as I said I think I went a bit far. I just figured his record is fairly inaccurate of how good a bowler he is, and 37 would be nearing Giles territory.

Speaking of Gilo, what do people think he'll end up with? Will he break that 40 mark? :-O
 

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