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Thread: Player's Averages - What will they end with?

  1. #1
    Virat Kohli (c) Jono's Avatar
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    Player's Averages - What will they end with?

    I thought this would be an interesting thread to do, especially after the Boxing Day test when Gilly's batting average fell below 50 when less than a year ago it was around 55. Additionally many believe players are in current decline, such as Tendulkar. Will his average fall at all the longer he plays? It hasn't fallen at the moment. Then there is Inzy, Dravid, Ponting and Kallis who continue piling on the runs year after year. I was watching the India vs. Australia Adelaide test of 2003/04 on tape a week or so ago and noticed at that time Dravid had an average of around 53. Since then, pretty much 2 years later, he's managed to boost it to over 57.

    Obviously statistics and averages don't say everything about a player, and it is mostly guesswork and wild predictions, but I think it'll be quite interesting. Especially with peaks and troughs in players careers, and some going on too long, the great Viv being an often mentioned example. So I'll just nominate a few players (I've done 2 batsman and bowlers from each nation I though would be interesting to predict), and you can add whomever you think will be interesting to do as well. I've mostly chosen fairly experienced players who are well into their career rather than young ones, so I guess most guesswork will be in regards to whether the players will heavily decline from here on end. There are some young players also though.

    Note: All are test match averages only. I didnít bother to do non-minnow averages.

    Batsmen:
    Adam Gilchrist (Current Average: 49.81)
    Ricky Ponting (Current Average: 56.27)
    Sachin Tendulkar (Current Average: 56.72)
    Virender Sehwag (Current Average: 53.55)
    Michael Vaughan (Current Average: 42.94)
    Marcus Trescothick (Current Average: 45.47)
    Inzamam Ul Haq (Current Average: 51.61)
    Shahid Afridi (Current Average: 35.83)
    Graeme Smith (Current Average: 52.72)
    Jaques Kallis (Current Average: 56.45)
    Stephen Fleming (Current Average: 39.03)
    Jacob Oram (Current Average: 43.57)
    Kumar Sangakkara (Current Average: 46.61)
    Mahela Jayawardene (Current Average: 47.80)
    Chris Gayle (Current Average: 38.79)
    Shivnarine Chanderpaul (Current Average: 45.94)

    Bowlers:
    Brett Lee (Current Average: 31.85)
    Stuart MacGill (Current Average: 27.82)
    Irfan Pathan (Current Average: 26.14)
    Harbhajan Singh (Current Average: 27.88)
    Andrew Flintoff (Current Average: 31.52)
    Stephen Harmison (Current Average: 28.72)
    Shoaib Akhtar (Current Average: 24.76)
    Danish Kaneria (Current Average: 30.56)
    Makhaya Ntini (Current Average: 29.22)
    Shaun Pollock (Current Average: 22.40)
    Shane Bond (Current Average: 20.80)
    Daniel Vettori (Current Average: 34.84)
    Murali (Current Average: 22.40)
    Chaminda Vaas (Current Average: 28.73)
    Dwayne Bravo (Current Average: 33.11)
    Corey Collymore (Current Average: 31.37)
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  2. #2
    International Coach howardj's Avatar
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    Interesting.

    Out of the batsmen, I think Ponting and Kallis could both push 60 by the time they retire.

  3. #3
    International Debutant a massive zebra's Avatar
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    Batsmen:
    Adam Gilchrist (Current Average: 49.81) My prediction 46
    Ricky Ponting (Current Average: 56.27) My prediction 51
    Sachin Tendulkar (Current Average: 56.72) " " 55
    Virender Sehwag (Current Average: 53.55) " " 48
    Michael Vaughan (Current Average: 42.94) " " 40
    Marcus Trescothick (Current Average: 45.47) " " 44
    Inzamam Ul Haq (Current Average: 51.61) " " 52
    Shahid Afridi (Current Average: 35.83) " " 34
    Graeme Smith (Current Average: 52.72) " " 45
    Jaques Kallis (Current Average: 56.45) " " 52
    Stephen Fleming (Current Average: 39.03) " " 37
    Jacob Oram (Current Average: 43.57) " " 32
    Kumar Sangakkara (Current Average: 46.61) " " 45
    Mahela Jayawardene (Current Average: 47.80) " " 42
    Chris Gayle (Current Average: 38.79) " " 36
    Shivnarine Chanderpaul (Current Average: 45.94) " " 47

    Bowlers:
    Brett Lee (Current Average: 31.85) " " 32
    Stuart MacGill (Current Average: 27.82) " " 29
    Irfan Pathan (Current Average: 26.14) " " 30
    Harbhajan Singh (Current Average: 27.88) " " 28
    Andrew Flintoff (Current Average: 31.52) " " 28
    Stephen Harmison (Current Average: 28.72) " " 31
    Shoaib Akhtar (Current Average: 24.76) " " 25
    Danish Kaneria (Current Average: 30.56) " " 27
    Makhaya Ntini (Current Average: 29.22) " " 29
    Shaun Pollock (Current Average: 22.40) " " 23
    Shane Bond (Current Average: 20.80) " " 25
    Daniel Vettori (Current Average: 34.84) " " 37
    Murali (Current Average: 22.40) " " 22
    Chaminda Vaas (Current Average: 28.73) " " 29
    Dwayne Bravo (Current Average: 33.11) " " 32
    Corey Collymore (Current Average: 31.37) " " 33
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  4. #4
    International 12th Man
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    Quote Originally Posted by a massive zebra
    Batsmen:
    Adam Gilchrist (Current Average: 49.81) My prediction 46
    Ricky Ponting (Current Average: 56.27) My prediction 51
    Sachin Tendulkar (Current Average: 56.72) " " 55
    Virender Sehwag (Current Average: 53.55) " " 48
    Michael Vaughan (Current Average: 42.94) " " 40
    Marcus Trescothick (Current Average: 45.47) " " 44
    Inzamam Ul Haq (Current Average: 51.61) " " 52
    Shahid Afridi (Current Average: 35.83) " " 34
    Graeme Smith (Current Average: 52.72) " " 45
    Jaques Kallis (Current Average: 56.45) " " 52
    Stephen Fleming (Current Average: 39.03) " " 37
    Jacob Oram (Current Average: 43.57) " " 32
    Kumar Sangakkara (Current Average: 46.61) " " 45
    Mahela Jayawardene (Current Average: 47.80) " " 42
    Chris Gayle (Current Average: 38.79) " " 36
    Shivnarine Chanderpaul (Current Average: 45.94) " " 47

    Bowlers:
    Brett Lee (Current Average: 31.85) " " 32
    Stuart MacGill (Current Average: 27.82) " " 29
    Irfan Pathan (Current Average: 26.14) " " 30
    Harbhajan Singh (Current Average: 27.88) " " 28
    Andrew Flintoff (Current Average: 31.52) " " 28
    Stephen Harmison (Current Average: 28.72) " " 31
    Shoaib Akhtar (Current Average: 24.76) " " 25
    Danish Kaneria (Current Average: 30.56) " " 27
    Makhaya Ntini (Current Average: 29.22) " " 29
    Shaun Pollock (Current Average: 22.40) " " 23
    Shane Bond (Current Average: 20.80) " " 25
    Daniel Vettori (Current Average: 34.84) " " 37
    Murali (Current Average: 22.40) " " 22
    Chaminda Vaas (Current Average: 28.73) " " 29
    Dwayne Bravo (Current Average: 33.11) " " 32
    Corey Collymore (Current Average: 31.37) " " 33
    So virtually every leading batsman's average is going to go down, some dramatically. Virtually every leading bowler's average is going to go up, some dramatically.

    Hmm.


  5. #5
    BARNES OUT dontcloseyoureyes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by greg
    So virtually every leading batsman's average is going to go down, some dramatically. Virtually every leading bowler's average is going to go up, some dramatically.

    Hmm.
    Yes, I also found his predictions to be ridiculous,

  6. #6
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    Adam Gilchrist (Current Average: 49.81) - 48
    Ricky Ponting (Current Average: 56.27) - 58
    Sachin Tendulkar (Current Average: 56.72) - 57
    Virender Sehwag (Current Average: 53.55) - 50
    Michael Vaughan (Current Average: 42.94) - 43
    Marcus Trescothick (Current Average: 45.47) - 43
    Inzamam Ul Haq (Current Average: 51.61) - 53
    Shahid Afridi (Current Average: 35.83) - 38
    Graeme Smith (Current Average: 52.72) - 53
    Jaques Kallis (Current Average: 56.45) - 55
    Stephen Fleming (Current Average: 39.03) - 38
    Jacob Oram (Current Average: 43.57) - 40
    Kumar Sangakkara (Current Average: 46.61) - 45
    Mahela Jayawardene (Current Average: 47.80) - 48
    Chris Gayle (Current Average: 38.79) - 40
    Shivnarine Chanderpaul (Current Average: 45.94) - 46
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  7. #7
    Virat Kohli (c) Jono's Avatar
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    I've had a crack at the players I chose. Some have had drastic changes, some I haven't really changed much.

    Batsmen:
    Adam Gilchrist (Final Predicted Average: 47-48) Down 1-2
    Ricky Ponting (Final Predicted Average: 57-58) Up 1-2
    Sachin Tendulkar (Final Predicted Average: 56-57) Same
    Virender Sehwag (Final Predicted Average: 55-56) Up 2-3
    Michael Vaughan (Final Predicted Average: 40-41) Down 1-2
    Marcus Trescothick (Final Predicted Average: 48-49) Up 3-4
    Inzamam Ul Haq (Final Predicted Average: 52-53) Up 1-2
    Shahid Afridi (Final Predicted Average: 38-39) Up 3-4
    Graeme Smith (Final Predicted Average: 49-50) Down 2-3
    Jaques Kallis (Final Predicted Average: 59-60) Up 3-4
    Stephen Fleming (Final Predicted Average: 37-38) Down 1-2
    Jacob Oram (Final Predicted Average: 40-41) Down 1
    Kumar Sangakkara (Final Predicted Average: 49-50) Up 3-4
    Mahela Jayawardene (Final Predicted Average: 46-47) Up 1
    Chris Gayle (Final Predicted Average: 39-40) Up 1
    Shivnarine Chanderpaul (Final Predicted Average: 43-44) Down 1-2

    Bowlers:
    Brett Lee (Final Predicted Average: 29-30) Down 1-2
    Stuart MacGill (Final Predicted Average: 28-29) Up 1-2
    Irfan Pathan (Final Predicted Average: 27-28) Up 1-2
    Harbhajan Singh (Final Predicted Average: 25-26) Down 1-2
    Andrew Flintoff (Final Predicted Average: 25-26) Down 5-6
    Stephen Harmison (Final Predicted Average: 29-30) Up 1-2
    Shoaib Akhtar (Final Predicted Average: 23-24) Down 1
    Danish Kaneria (Final Predicted Average: 24-25) Down 5-6
    Makhaya Ntini (Final Predicted Average: 26-27) Down 4-5
    Shaun Pollock (Final Predicted Average: 22-23) Same
    Shane Bond (Final Predicted Average: 25-26) Up 5-6 (Well he has to, canít really improve from an average of 20 from 12 matches )
    Daniel Vettori (Final Predicted Average: 28-29) Down 5-6
    Murali (Final Predicted Average: 21-22) Same
    Chaminda Vaas (Final Predicted Average: 29-30) Up 1
    Dwayne Bravo (Final Predicted Average: 28-29) Down 4-5
    Corey Collymore (Final Predicted Average: 30-31) Down 1

    Interesting I figured most bowlers would improve wheras I saw quite a few batsman dropping off. I never knew Vaughan's average was so low actually. That's quite amazing. At the same time I never knew Jayawardene's was so high.
    Last edited by Jono; 02-01-2006 at 07:48 AM.

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    International Debutant a massive zebra's Avatar
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    Just my opinion - it may be completely wrong.

    Gilchrist has a lot of work to do if he is to maintain his 50 average, Smith only averages that high because he had a great start and his performances have now reached a consistent plateau, Jayawardene is not good enough to average 47, Ponting and Kallis are not good enough to average 56, Flintoff is a quality bowler whose figures have suffered from being picked too early, Pathan will not keep up his excellent average as it is mainly based on minnow-basing, Murali is a legend, Pollock is in decline but near the end, Bravo is an intelligent bowler, Shoaib has the ability to be an all-time great ...........

    Just my opinion.
    Last edited by a massive zebra; 02-01-2006 at 07:48 AM.

  9. #9
    Virat Kohli (c) Jono's Avatar
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    You see, I also was very surprised at Jayawardene's average. But the way I see it, he's averaged that for so long, and I don't see him dwindling any time soon actually. Whether it be minnow bashing, or scoring really well and then going into periods of low scores which is holding his average high, he's going to get better with maturity IMO. I reckon he'll keep it if not improve a little. Maybe I'm wrong though *shrugs*

  10. #10
    International Debutant a massive zebra's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jono
    Daniel Vettori (Final Predicted Average: 28-29) Down 5-6


    And I'm a hairy otter..

  11. #11
    Virat Kohli (c) Jono's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by a massive zebra


    And I'm a hairy otter..
    Who the hell uses the word 'otter'?

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    International Coach howardj's Avatar
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    Only a fellow otter would know what an otter is

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    Batsmen:
    Adam Gilchrist (Current Average: 49.81) - 50
    Ricky Ponting (Current Average: 56.27) - 54
    Sachin Tendulkar (Current Average: 56.72) - 56
    Virender Sehwag (Current Average: 53.55) - 56
    Michael Vaughan (Current Average: 42.94) - 40
    Marcus Trescothick (Current Average: 45.47) - 46
    Inzamam Ul Haq (Current Average: 51.61) - 52
    Shahid Afridi (Current Average: 35.83) - 39
    Graeme Smith (Current Average: 52.72) - 47
    Jaques Kallis (Current Average: 56.45) - 58
    Stephen Fleming (Current Average: 39.03) - 40
    Jacob Oram (Current Average: 43.57) - 45
    Kumar Sangakkara (Current Average: 46.61) - 46
    Mahela Jayawardene (Current Average: 47.80) - 49
    Chris Gayle (Current Average: 38.79) - 41
    Shivnarine Chanderpaul (Current Average: 45.94) - 47

    Bowlers:
    Brett Lee (Current Average: 31.85) - 29
    Stuart MacGill (Current Average: 27.82) - 29
    Irfan Pathan (Current Average: 26.14) - 25
    Harbhajan Singh (Current Average: 27.88) - 25
    Andrew Flintoff (Current Average: 31.52) - 24
    Stephen Harmison (Current Average: 28.72) - 29
    Shoaib Akhtar (Current Average: 24.76) - 23
    Danish Kaneria (Current Average: 30.56) - 28
    Makhaya Ntini (Current Average: 29.22) - 26
    Shaun Pollock (Current Average: 22.40) - 23
    Shane Bond (Current Average: 20.80) - 25
    Daniel Vettori (Current Average: 34.84) - 33
    Murali (Current Average: 22.40) - 20
    Chaminda Vaas (Current Average: 28.73) - 29
    Dwayne Bravo (Current Average: 33.11) - 28
    Corey Collymore (Current Average: 31.37) - 29
    Last edited by Tom Halsey; 02-01-2006 at 07:57 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jono
    Daniel Vettori (Final Predicted Average: 28-29) Down 5-6
    I'd be very surprised if that happens.

  15. #15
    International Debutant a massive zebra's Avatar
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    To finish with a career average of 28 Vettori is going to have to average around 20 for the rest of his career, but for almost two years between 2002 and 2004 his figure was around the 70 mark.

    If Vettori averages 28 in his career I will eat my computer.

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