Why England's pre-Ashes hype was crazy and possibly doomed

[Richard]

"CAN" the operative word here.

On the bowling front, I think McGrath, Warne and Lee cannot get much better, so the only way Australia will improve there is if their 4th bowler finds some form.
On the England side, Simon Jones can get a bit more luck, Flintoff, Hoggard, and Giles can really only improve. And then there's the England fielding...

I don't think we've yet seen the closest of the matches, as you seem to imply.

I think if Australia's batsmen get better, Harmison's figures get worse, Jones (who bowled pretty well at Lord's) stays with poor figures, Hoggard probably does, Giles certainly does unless we get a turner (and I don't really expect more than 1 all series) and Flintoff (who bowled terribly at Lord's - terribly - and the fact that he got Gilchrist twice seems to have made everyone oblivious to that) stays with poor figures.
McGrath and Warne can't get much better, no, and the rest of the pitches aren't likely to make McGrath as unplayable as Lord's did. Lee, obviously, should get much worse, but equally Gillespie can get much better.
And even if Strauss, Vaughan, Bell and Jones play better than they did in the second-innings (which I hope against hope they manage) I still wouldn't be terribly surprised to see them getting mere 350-400s, while Australia score 600s.
As for the catching, I think England's will probably stay poor until the Fourth Test (that's been the pattern of the last 3 series at least, maybe more) and Australia's will get worse. I was astonished Australia didn't drop 1 catch at Lord's.

 

[Steulen]

You've got a point on Australia's catching. They were *much* better than recently. The dollydroppers certainly got their act together.

Another point worth mentioning is that England's bowlers seem to lack stamina. Harmsion's 3rd innings pace was frankly shocking compared to the first innings. Meanwhile, Lee kept steaming in at 90+ mph..

 

[King_Ponting]

You've got a point on Australia's catching. They were *much* better than recently. The dollydroppers certainly got their act together.

Another point worth mentioning is that England's bowlers seem to lack stamina. Harmsion's 3rd innings pace was frankly shocking compared to the first innings. Meanwhile, Lee kept steaming in at 90+ mph..

Actually lees average pace in the second innings was only 84.1 MPH

 

[Richard]

And what matters is not what pace he was bowling at.
Lee can bowl at 95mph average in the next 4 Tests, and if none of the pitches offer the unevenness of Lord's he'll still get smashed around if everything else is the same.

 

[Richard]

Harmsion's 3rd innings pace was frankly shocking compared to the first innings.

Indeed, it was very interesting that.
The only other explanation I can come-up with was that they were "letting the pitch do the work". Because one thing for sure - the second-innings was the most accurate Harmison has bowled in a Test-match since the New Zealand series.

 

[King_Ponting]

And what matters is not what pace he was bowling at.
Lee can bowl at 95mph average in the next 4 Tests, and if none of the pitches offer the unevenness of Lord's he'll still get smashed around if everything else is the same.

Nope if everything else is the same the english batsman will still find a way to get themselves out no matter how well he is bowling

 

[Steulen]

Indeed, it was very interesting that.
The only other explanation I can come-up with was that they were "letting the pitch do the work". Because one thing for sure - the second-innings was the most accurate Harmison has bowled in a Test-match since the New Zealand series.

Perhaps it was accurate, but it didn't trouble the batsmen to the same extent. Seeing that, you'd think he would have gone all-out again in his later spells, if he was indeed doing a McGrath earlier and bowling within himself.

 

[Steulen]

Actually lees average pace in the second innings was only 84.1 MPH

It was? Pretty biased observation then by yours truly

 

[King_Ponting]

It was? Pretty biased observation then by yours truly

Yeh i thought he was bowling alot quicker as well. but when channel 4 brought up the pace comparison and highest lowest speed etc, it said that his average pace was 84.1 which is kinda strange, i must say

 

[Richard]

Nope if everything else is the same the english batsman will still find a way to get themselves out no matter how well he is bowling

The reasons they got themslves out were indecision (Strauss second-innings), poor form (Vaughan second-innings) and brainlessness (Jones second-innings).
None of which are unfamiliar.

 

[Richard]

Perhaps it was accurate, but it didn't trouble the batsmen to the same extent. Seeing that, you'd think he would have gone all-out again in his later spells, if he was indeed doing a McGrath earlier and bowling within himself.

Well, Harmison didn't trouble the two batsman who played especially well (Katich throughout - before he got with the tail - and Clarke in the second-innings) at all, he just benefited from the Australians playing terribly.

 

[Steulen]

Well, Harmison didn't trouble the two batsman who played especially well (Katich throughout - before he got with the tail - and Clarke in the second-innings) at all, he just benefited from the Australians playing terribly.

...and the pitch. Let's not forget the pitch.
Anyway, the most likely theory imho still is that he and his mates were so knackered they couldn't get it to 90mph anymore in the second innings. If that becomes a pattern, expect to see very high second innings scores from the aussies.

 

[Richard]

Well I expect to see pretty high first-innings scores very, very soon anyhow.

 

[Richard]

...and the pitch. Let's not forget the pitch.

Not many of Harmison's wickets can be directly traced to the pitch's unevenness...
Ponting's was just a good away-seamer
Warne's was a poor stroke from a tailender
Lee's was a poor stroke from a tailender
Katich's was a desperate stroke from someone left with the tail
Gillespie's was a poor stroke from a tailender
Martyn's did keep low
Warne's was a poor stroke from a tailender
Katich's was a desperate stroke from someone left with the tail
But most of Harmison's wickets had to do with tail-enders - either getting them out himself or Katich feeling the need to get on rather than just play for a not-out.