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Tendency to quote freak stats out of context !!

Nate

You'll Never Walk Alone
a massive zebra said:
Perfect post.

This could be used as a prime example of why SJS without doubt the very finest member of the forum.
Hell yes.

...and your follow-up wasn`t half bad either. :D
 

Steulen

International Regular
SJS said:
Australian selectors are totally crazy to have played Langer in only 7 odi's so far, after all he has one of the highest ever strike rates (88.9) in the game !! :-O :-O
Langer's branding as a 'nudger & nurdler' is a misconception, indeed. :)
 

SJS

Hall of Fame Member
FaaipDeOiad said:
So what if Murali tours Australia again and plays say 4 or 5 more tests there, and struggles and finishes his career averaging 80 there. Would he not be an all-time great? Is Warne not an all-time great because of his poor India average (or Murali for that matter)? It's ludicrous to suggest that because a player doesn't succeed in one place means that all the rest of their amazing success is suddenly rendered insignificant.
It is also important to understand that statistical probability is a funny thing.

I can give hundreds of examples. Here is a recent one.

Tendulkar has two five fors in odi's. This itself is quite a remarkable figure but whats absolutely mind boggling is the COINCIDENCE that both of them have come on the non regular venue of Kochi !!

He has played only 3 of his 342 ODI's in Kochi and yet when he got his first five for in his 179th match after nearly ten years of international cricket, , it was in his first ever match at Kochi.

It took him another seven years and 154 matches to record his second five for and it was again at the lesser known South Indian venue of Kochi !!

He averages 12.6 per wicket and has a strike rate of 18.0 at this ground !!

What does one say to this? Its not as if the wicket has somespecial something for Sachin. Its a freaking coincidence !!

There have been much greater coincincidences than this in the world of sport and the world at large. Those who try to read something into such statistical oddities something more than that exists, just demonstrate their ignorance of the game.

It is different from Warnes performances in India. Forget his statistics. He could have got 4-5 more wickets even to bad balls as happens sometimes and his stats wouldnt look as bad as they do in India.

BUT that is not the point !!

Anyone who has seen him bowling to Indian batsmen can see that they play him with much greater confidence and freedom than anyone else does in the world. This has to be seen (along with the statistics, whatsoever they maybe) to decide whether a bowler (or batsman) has a problem under certain conditions or is it just a matter of chance, luck or bad form !!
 

Son Of Coco

Cricket Web: All-Time Legend
Top_Cat said:
4*(McGrath)/'Fourtunate Foursome' = 0

Therefore,

0 = cricket as we know it.

Therefore,

Cricket as we know it does not exist.
That's very deep!

Also, if someone gets lucky in a forest, but noone was there to see it, did they really get lucky at all? (go the double entendre!) :D
 

a massive zebra

International Captain
SJS said:
Tendulkar has two five fors in odi's. This itself is quite a remarkable figure but whats absolutely mind boggling is the COINCIDENCE that both of them have come on the non regular venue of Kochi !!
That is twice as many five fors in ODIs as God himself, the Rt. Hon. Shane Warne.

Tendulkar must be the better bowler of the two. :D
 

Steulen

International Regular
Both Warne and Tendulkar are schoolboys compared to the great Michael Clarke. We all know Test bowling is the only thing that matters and Clarke is simply peerless. Just look at his average!
 

a massive zebra

International Captain
Steulen said:
Both Warne and Tendulkar are schoolboys compared to the great Michael Clarke. We all know Test bowling is the only thing that matters and Clarke is simply peerless. Just look at his average!
Indeed.
 

FaaipDeOiad

Hall of Fame Member
Steulen said:
Both Warne and Tendulkar are schoolboys compared to the great Michael Clarke. We all know Test bowling is the only thing that matters and Clarke is simply peerless. Just look at his average!
Indeed. On top of that, Clarke has been tossed the ball in just 5 test matches and bowled just 110 deliveries, so let us not forget that remarkable strike rate. Assuming that his spectacular bowling abilities will see him bowling more often in the future, and he bowls as much as Warne does over his next 123 test matches, he will, at the same stage in his career, have a remarkable 2505 test wickets. This gives him an excellent wickets per match ratio of no less than 20.37, meaning he will on average shatter not only Laker's record but also all realms of possibility by taking more wickets than there are to take in each match. This certainly puts Warne and Murali to shame!
 

vic_orthdox

Global Moderator
FaaipDeOiad said:
Indeed. On top of that, Clarke has been tossed the ball in just 5 test matches and bowled just 110 deliveries, so let us not forget that remarkable strike rate. Assuming that his spectacular bowling abilities will see him bowling more often in the future, and he bowls as much as Warne does over his next 123 test matches, he will, at the same stage in his career, have a remarkable 2505 test wickets. This gives him an excellent wickets per match ratio of no less than 20.37, meaning he will on average shatter not only Laker's record but also all realms of possibility by taking more wickets than there are to take in each match. This certainly puts Warne and Murali to shame!
That, my contemporaries, is one of the best.
 

marc71178

Eyes not spreadsheets
Steulen said:
The most brilliant (and common) example of out-of-context stats is when it is said of player X: "He was talismanic/instrumental/whathaveyou to the team: averaging 54 when they won and 27 when they lost". Duh....
CricInfo's daily list of past events uses this all the time.
I still think the Laxman average when he doesn't get to 10 is the best.
 

BoyBrumby

Englishman
No one else has quoted it, so I may as well:

“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

Benjamin Disraeli ;)
 

social

Cricket Web: All-Time Legend
tooextracool said:
exactly, and failing miserably in australia will change turn everything upside down. and you can almost guarantee thats not going to happen. because murali is too good a bowler to average 80 odd over 4 tests anywhere in the world. and my point is not that he must succeed to retain his status, my point is that he must not disgrace himself, so if he came out averaging 40 odd at the end of the series, hed still be an all time great.



err no, obviously not. if someone hasnt had the chance to prove himself in certain conditions, then you can only consider the person in all other conditions. there have been plenty of greats, who for example didnt play in certain countries. ambrose for example, didnt bowl a ball in india. lillee played only 3 games in the subcontinent. botham only played one test in pakistan. but the fact is that a player can only prove himself in the conditions that he plays in, and if hes done well(or at least not disgraced himself) in all the conditions that hes played extensively on, then hes an all time great.
So Botham isnt an all-time great because he failed consistently against the West Indies.

And Murali has had a chance to rectify his record in Australia. Unfortunately, he's chosen not to tour.
 

Swervy

International Captain
FaaipDeOiad said:
Indeed. On top of that, Clarke has been tossed the ball in just 5 test matches and bowled just 110 deliveries, so let us not forget that remarkable strike rate. Assuming that his spectacular bowling abilities will see him bowling more often in the future, and he bowls as much as Warne does over his next 123 test matches, he will, at the same stage in his career, have a remarkable 2505 test wickets. This gives him an excellent wickets per match ratio of no less than 20.37, meaning he will on average shatter not only Laker's record but also all realms of possibility by taking more wickets than there are to take in each match. This certainly puts Warne and Murali to shame!
the bowling equivalent of going faster than the speed of light...cool
 

Swervy

International Captain
social said:
So Botham isnt an all-time great because he failed consistently against the West Indies.

And Murali has had a chance to rectify his record in Australia. Unfortunately, he's chosen not to tour.
actually Botham didnt consistantly fail against the WI's, its just he didnt consistantly succeed..3 times in 20 matches he took 5fors and 10 times took 3 or more wickets including one of his best bowling performances ever with his 8 wicket haul in 84

In 84 in fact he was one of Englands most consistant players scoring 350 runs and taking 31 wickets...not bad for a failure
 

social

Cricket Web: All-Time Legend
tooextracool said:
yes he did get a dicey lbw but either way that was a very poor shot to play early on in his innings.
ponting has become a better player since 2001 yes, but certainly i havent heard anything about him improving his ability against spin. if anything, hes gone backwards since the start of his career.
Stupid statement.

Ponting was totally insipid against spin early in his career but has now reached the stage where he is as good as anyone (yes, you read correctly).

He's dominated virtually every spinner in almost every condition including Murali in Sri Lanka. Unfortunately, his record in India will always lead some people to claim that he can't play spin.
 

Anil

Hall of Fame Member
Top_Cat said:
4*(McGrath)/'Fourtunate Foursome' = 0

Therefore,

0 = cricket as we know it.

Therefore,

Cricket as we know it does not exist.
it's the matrix controlling and manipulating our mind..!!! :laugh:
 

social

Cricket Web: All-Time Legend
Swervy said:
actually Botham didnt consistantly fail against the WI's, its just he didnt consistantly succeed..3 times in 20 matches he took 5fors and 10 times took 3 or more wickets including one of his best bowling performances ever with his 8 wicket haul in 84

In 84 in fact he was one of Englands most consistant players scoring 350 runs and taking 31 wickets...not bad for a failure
Botham took 19 wickets @ 35 in '84.

Overall, he averaged 20 with the bat and 35 with ball against the WI.

Hardly cause for celebration.

Not that I hold it against him as I still rate him as an all-time great.

Unfortunately, the selective use of statistics would preclude others from making the same determination.
 

Swervy

International Captain
social said:
Botham took 19 wickets @ 35 in '84.

Overall, he averaged 20 with the bat and 35 with ball against the WI.

Hardly cause for celebration.

Not that I hold it against him as I still rate him as an all-time great.

Unfortunately, the selective use of statistics would preclude others from making the same determination.

my mistake..he took 31 vs Australia the next season
 

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