Ashes predictions

[Simon]

my prediction is 5-0 australia, england might get lucky and draw 1 due to rain in a game...

 

[Top_Cat]

I don't think they play 6 Tests anymore?

 

[age_master]

nah i dont know why not, but afaik there is only 5 tests

 

[SJS]

I cant believe it that a third of the people believe Australia wont win and a fourth of the total actually believe England can win.

 

[SJS]

I cant believe it that a third of the people believe Australia wont win and a fourth of the total actually believe England can win.

The odds on an England win are a handsome 7:2 against. I hope these optimist England supporters are putting their money where their vote is

 

[Neil Pickup]

a lot of ppl seem to think it will go 3-1, but if we think really hard i dont see a drawn test match occuring it all 5 days are played. So i will have to say 4-1 could be the likely outcome

And what are the chances of getting all five Tests to five days in England?

 

[Scaly piscine]

If that is true then why does he not cause any other team problems, even Bangladesh, when the wicket does not suit him?

Australia have a weakness against his type of bowling. He has also nicked a few out in the first innings quite often of late, that is not exactly the most spinner friendly time to bowl.

Clearly not consistent, although I never mentioned anything about consistency. I said he struggles for a consistent line and length - proven by the economy rates, and as anyone who had actually watched him would see.

I was referring to you saying he was wayward, he's far more consistent with his line and length than Anderson who you grouped him with. He however doesn't move it a lot of the time so that's why he has not great bowling figures along with him skidding on nicely.

.......................................... M ...O .......R .W .Avge ..BB 5wi 10wm
Harmison vs Top 6 Teams .....14 420.4 1647 32 51.46 4/33 - -
Harmison vs Bottom 3 Teams 11 458.1 1071 58 18.46 7/12 4 -

Says it all really.



One 5 wicket haul in 45 matches proves otherwise.

Says naff all really because most of those games are from 2 years ago. He consistently took wickets against NZ (3/4 in every innings of the 3 games if I remember correctly) and was accepted by Fleming as the difference between the two sides. As for Flintoff I said he has *started* to run through sides, he had a couple of 4 wicket hauls against SA on wickets that weren't great for running through sides on.

 

[wpdavid]

nah i dont know why not, but afaik there is only 5 tests

Even our administrators wouldn't try to squeeze in 6 tests now that we also have 2 against Bangladesh plus all the Nat West games. I always felt six was too many anyway.

 

[Tom Halsey]

An England win is definately possible, but definately not likely.

 

[Link]

its not a case of loyalty..I am sure 95% of the members of the Barmy Army will think Australia will win, and yet still shout big time for England..its just being realistic

ha ha, i grudging accept that you probally right, the barmy army are mindless. I do not represent them. im just a vivid suporter monortoring all cricket aspects and i constantly fail to fall into the hype of the australians.
Is that pride over brains? i hope not......

 

[Link]

It's like City at Old Trafford. Just a little less unlikely.

Believing it can happen, and thinking it will happen are two different things.

neil you constantly upset me. And as for Man City they didnt do too bad against us....... the best side in the league

 

[marc71178]

The odds on an England win are a handsome 7:2 against. I hope these optimist England supporters are putting their money where their vote is

I wonder how many of the votes for England were serious.

I can think of at least 2 that weren't so far.

 

[Neil Pickup]

neil you constantly upset me. And as for Man City they didnt do too bad against us....... the best side in the league

You know which City I meant.

 

[BoyBrumby]

The odds on an England win are a handsome 7:2 against. I hope these optimist England supporters are putting their money where their vote is

I think England are a good each-way bet!

Seriously tho, 7/2 is pretty generous in a two horse race. Of course Australia are rightly favourites, but if, say, McGrath pulls a hamstring & Warne's shoulder went again the series looks more of a 50/50 call. I don't think an English win is beyond the realms of possibility. Just rather unlikely.

 

[Neil Pickup]

I think England are a good each-way bet!

Seriously tho, 7/2 is pretty generous in a two horse race. Of course Australia are rightly favourites, but if, say, McGrath pulls a hamstring & Warne's shoulder went again the series looks more of a 50/50 call. I don't think an English win is beyond the realms of possibility. Just rather unlikely.

I wouldn't start putting money on England unless I was getting odds of double that.

Let's look at it this way (one bit of stat analysis, then bed):

Each Test - England 25%, Draw 15%, Aus 60%
243 permutations of series results (3 different ways to the power 5)

Joint and cumulative probabilities calculating the probability of an Australian series win at 0.757, England at 0.132 and Draw at 0.111.

Intriguingly, the sets of odds selected give 3-1 and 4-1 to Australia as jointly most likely scores, with probablities of 0.162, or 5.17:1. A nil-nil draw is 13,168:1.

That's odds of 0.32:1, 6.60:1 and 7.97:1 respectively.

Feel free to suggest any other game percentages, to which I can model the result accordingly.

 

[aussie]

And what are the chances of getting all five Tests to five days in England?

well once rain doen't fall it could go that way, while it could be difficult for england to carry the aussies all 5 days in all 5 test

 

[Neil Pickup]

well once rain doen't fall it could go that way, while it could be difficult for england to carry the aussies all 5 days in all 5 test

Remember the English summer weather...

 

[aussie]

Remember the English summer weather...

ahhhhhhhh, oh yes, but even if their is some interuption along the way during the test series if it isn't too much i could still see australia beating us once the time is sufficeint & the series still alive

 

[tooextracool]

Last 8 matches

38 3 129 4 3.39 W 1st Test v Ind in Eng 2002 at Lord's [1610]
7 0 32 1 4.57 L 1st Test v Aus in Aus 2002/03 at Brisbane [1623]
22 3 72 3 3.27 W 1st Test v WI in WI 2003/04 at Kingston [1687]
27 4 101 6 3.74 W 2nd Test v WI in WI 2003/04 at Port of Spain [1690]
16 1 55 1 3.44 W 3rd Test v WI in WI 2003/04 at Bridgetown [1694]
29 0 146 1 5.03 D 4th Test v WI in WI 2003/04 at St John's [1696]
46 13 146 4 3.17 W 1st Test v NZ in Eng 2004 at Lord's [1700]
25 6 99 1 3.96 W 1st Test v WI in Eng 2004 at Lord's [1707]

We have 1 very good match, 3 acceptable matches and 4 poor ones. Clearly not consistent, although I never mentioned anything about consistency. I said he struggles for a consistent line and length - proven by the economy rates, and as anyone who had actually watched him would see.

well done in leaving out the entire series in SA though, makes your claims look even more ludicrous. and instead of accusing others of not watching the game, you might actually want to watch his performance at lords against NZ, which was clearly match winning for anyone who is capable of judging a bowler by performance instead of match figures.

 

[tooextracool]

Giles - a mediocre Test bowler who remains very reliant on spinning wickets, and cannot be expected to cause Australia much trouble.

and you believe that there wont be turning wickets in england this summer, even though for most of last summer we were stuck with slow, low turning wickets?
not to mention of course that the oval is almost guaranteed to turn anyways.