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Thread: Road to the 2019 Ashes

  1. #631
    Global Moderator Spark's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheJediBrah View Post
    haha I was wondering if anyone would point that out



    voice of reason as usual. Outside of those road-Tests Burns averages under 20
    Yeah I'm not a fan of "outside of..." analysis, but I am a fan of "the bloke keeps playing the forward defence to backward point somehow" analysis.
    citoyens, vouliez-vous une révolution sans révolution?

  2. #632
    International Coach stephen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheJediBrah View Post
    lol you can whinge about it all you want, doesn't make it any less true.

    I ran the numbers just for fun. Australia's team batting average in Tests where Burns has played is 43.19, including a whopping 13 declarations in 16 matches. So that doesn't even take into account the average being brought down by declaration batting in those games, which was significant.

    Team batting average for Harris' tests was 32.57, with only 2 declarations.

    Pretty much what I expected. Burns' run in the team was blessed with conditions and opponents.

    This is why looking at their career averages and thinking "hurr durr Burns 40 Harris 30 Burns is clearly better" is so ignorant
    Did you remember to take out their scores when you did it? And adjust for the fact that Harris played when Smith and Warner were banned?

    Even then, it's misleading, because Burns has been more successful, the team has been more successful. When an opener makes runs, it gives the middle order a better opportunity to make runs.

    And the problem isn't even Burns himself. The problem is that the selectors have just publicly announced that the shield and tests don't matter, what matters is that you play county cricket and then maybe make a few runs on a juiced up greentop.

    It's not so much dropping Burns - there are some arguments that could be made to do with his health and form or whatnot. The problem is who they *have* picked and who else they dropped.

    Bird - not picked. Performed way better than Siddle in the last shield season. Better bowler than Neser. Has a better test record in far fewer opportunities on flatter pitches than Siddle.
    Burns - dropped. 180 in his most recent shot in tests (rescued the side from 3-28). Averages over 40 in tests and the same in the shield while playing for Queensland who have better pitches for the quicks than southern states.
    Patterson - dropped. 144 runs in his two tests. Averages over 40 in first class cricket. Sorted out the one issue holding him back (conversion). Scored 70 runs in his last first class outing (admittedly with two 30s) and scored a half century in the shield final.

    Marsh - picked. Averages 25 with the bat in tests, 44 with the ball. Averaged 36 with the bat and 41 with the ball in the last shield season.
    Labaschagne - picked. Averaged 24 with the bat and 57 with the ball in the last shield season. Averages 26 with the bat in tests. Makes Marsh's stats look good.
    Bancroft - picked. Has done decently since his return. Should have had his cards marked after the sandpaper affair, at least while Warner is in the team. Was woeful against a toothless England on flat decks at home last time around. Langer favourite.
    Neser - picked. James Hopes who is fractionally better with the ball and a lot worse with the bat. Easily behind the other fast bowlers. Hard to see where he could possibly fit into the team.

    And this is before the XI has even been picked. Sure, ultimately we're talking about what will be ultimately two batting spots and hopefully no bowling spots, but the biggest problem with all this is the message that it sends to every player in the shield - how well you play doesn't matter, what matters is whether you're a Langer favourite or not.

  3. #633
    International Coach stephen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spark View Post
    IIRC in his first stint, Burns mostly made runs in that one summer where literally everyone made runs in ludicrous quantities, in those two series against NZ and the one against WI (the ones where Voges and Marsh especially filled their boots). Most people basically tossed those results aside when it came to actually challenging conditions, though, because everyone could see that the bloke was flat-out not technically equipped to deal with even mild amounst of outswing or seam. I don't see that much evidence that he's improved in that regard, tbh.
    His hundred in New Zealand is worth noting because he top scored in both innings and Smith was the only other Australian to ton up.

    He was dropped after the whole side had a terrible tour of Sri Lanka, recalled for the Hobart disaster (where he was given out lbw on an umpires call decision on a ball that seamed dramatically), dropped, recalled for one test in South Africa (where he top scored in the second innings), dropped, recalled for two tests last summer, made 180 and has subsequently been dropped again. It's been terrible treatment by the selectors.

    But his dropping is not even the worst dropping of the tour. Patterson can rightfully feel livid at his treatment.

  4. #634
    Global Moderator Spark's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by stephen View Post
    His hundred in New Zealand is worth noting because he top scored in both innings and Smith was the only other Australian to ton up.

    He was dropped after the whole side had a terrible tour of Sri Lanka, recalled for the Hobart disaster (where he was given out lbw on an umpires call decision on a ball that seamed dramatically), dropped, recalled for one test in South Africa (where he top scored in the second innings), dropped, recalled for two tests last summer, made 180 and has subsequently been dropped again. It's been terrible treatment by the selectors.

    But his dropping is not even the worst dropping of the tour. Patterson can rightfully feel livid at his treatment.
    I remember that Test. Fully stand by my assessment that those were some of the easiest batting conditions in recent memory.

    You're trying way too hard to paint him as a victim of some tragic conspiracy. The bloke just isn't that good.


  5. #635
    International Coach stephen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheJediBrah View Post
    Outside of those road-Tests Burns averages under 20
    So what, 3 tests in Sri Lanka, a jetlagged test in South Africa and the Hobart massacre? Am I missing any?

  6. #636
    International Coach stephen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spark View Post
    I remember that Test. Fully stand by my assessment that those were some of the easiest batting conditions in recent memory.

    You're trying way too hard to paint him as a victim of some tragic conspiracy. The bloke just isn't that good.
    Oh yeah it was an exceptionally easy summer of cricket. But the people scoring the runs were Burns, Warner, Khawaja, Smith and Voges. One of those guys is retired, three are locked in and only one got discarded after Sri Lanka only to get picked and dropped numerous times since then. Funnily enough he hasn't been the hardest done by player in that period of time - Ferguson got even rougher treatment.

    One final point of irony - the other batsman during that summer was Mitchell Marsh.
    Last edited by stephen; 26-07-2019 at 07:39 AM.

  7. #637
    U19 Debutant Loose Cannon's Avatar
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    Neser is the weirdest pick. I just can't see where he fits into any team combination

    Luckily, we'll get to see more of Wade's bowling than his, this series

  8. #638
    International Vice-Captain aussie tragic's Avatar
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    Okay the road to the ashes as been too much with the sacking of Burns and Pattersen so I'm now joining the Barmy Army.

    First T-shirt is "Langer's a Wanker" (although he's not worthy of Aussie's famous cry) 2nd is "Bancroft, Harris and Marsh....Langer's Boys know how to suck"

  9. #639
    International Coach stephen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by aussie tragic View Post
    Okay the road to the ashes as been too much with the sacking of Burns and Pattersen so I'm now joining the Barmy Army.

    First T-shirt is "Langer's a Wanker" (although he's not worthy of Aussie's famous cry) 2nd is "Bancroft, Harris and Marsh....Langer's Boys know how to suck"
    Even if we pick Harris and Marsh and they make nothing but ducks for five tests we still have more quality batsmen than England. Although I think Head's lack of footwork will be found out in England. Still, three batsmen is more than England's two.

    Both sides will probably have pretty good bowling attacks - a mix of Starc, Pattinson, Cummins, Hazlewood and Lyon vs a combination of Woakes, Anderson, Broad, Archer, Curran, Leach and Ali.

  10. #640
    Hall of Fame Member harsh.ag's Avatar
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    Just think they should make up their mind and pick one between MMarsh and Labu. Having both ahead of a specialist batsman like Patterson is kinda sad.
    ~ Do you think I care for you so little that betraying me would make a difference ~

  11. #641
    Hall of Fame Member TheJediBrah's Avatar
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    Patterson is the worst non-selection. He really should be in the team, let alone the squad.

    Quote Originally Posted by Spark View Post
    You're trying way too hard to paint him as a victim of some tragic conspiracy. The bloke just isn't that good.
    He did the same when Renshaw wasn't being picked despite averaging negative in the Shield

    It's all well and good to think that Burns is as good an option, or even slightly better, than Harris or Bancroft. It's the idea that he's comfortably better in any way that's laughable.
    Last edited by TheJediBrah; 26-07-2019 at 08:07 AM.

  12. #642
    Hall of Fame Member TheJediBrah's Avatar
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    I'll give Burns this though, the one big advantage he has over the likes of Harris & Bancroft, and also the main reason he has stats that compete with them, is that he goes big when batting is easy. It's absolutely true to point out that he's had an easy run, but that doesn't change the fact that when conditions were easy he didn't throw it away and really made the most of it. However he's gone completely missing virtually every time there was an actual challenge to the batsmen.

    If we get an absolute road, and England are fielding a 2nd string attack because of injuries, I might rather have Burns out there. But I don't expect that to be the case this series.

  13. #643
    International Vice-Captain aussie tragic's Avatar
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    ^Burgey can we have a ruling on Jedibrah repetitive posting of absolute **** about Burns?

  14. #644
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheJediBrah View Post
    I'll give Burns this though, the one big advantage he has over the likes of Harris & Bancroft, and also the main reason he has stats that compete with them, is that he goes big when batting is easy. It's absolutely true to point out that he's had an easy run, but that doesn't change the fact that when conditions were easy he didn't throw it away and really made the most of it. However he's gone completely missing virtually every time there was an actual challenge to the batsmen.

    If we get an absolute road, and England are fielding a 2nd string attack because of injuries, I might rather have Burns out there. But I don't expect that to be the case this series.
    As opposed to Harris, who throws it away regardless of conditions (Melbourne, Sydney, Canberra being examples where he could have scored a century on a flat pitch but didn't).

  15. #645
    Hall of Fame Member harsh.ag's Avatar
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    Think he means he expects Harris to do better in tougher conditions.

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