*Official* First Test at Trent Bridge

[Stapel]

What sort of lead (at the end of this innings) would make the chase a 50/50 affair?

 

[Prince EWS]

England are considerably shorter than they were before the start of the day though. The inplay movements have made no sense to me all game.

Haha yeah I do agree. I also think Australia are value at the moment; I make the game only slightly in England's favour. I just think it'd be wrong to say "oh it's only Day 3, nothing wrong with the pitch, only chasing ~ 250" etc because although all that is true, Australia's batting lineup is bad at the best of the times. Day 3 or not I think this pitch will turn for Swann and that essentially gives Australia two relevant batsmen.

 

[Prince EWS]

That's because they are now in a much better position.

I really don't think they are.

 

[dermo]

If I was an Aussie bowler I would hate Broad so much.

everyone hates broad

 

[Stapel]

everyone hates broad

My wife thinks he's cute.......

 

[Cooky Monster]

Just when you think Ronald Bell is on downward spiral yet again he comes along and scores some hard runs.

Don't do it!, reverse jinxing is the way to go... hes going to give it away anytime now.

 

[Tom Halsey]

That's because they are now in a much better position.

Also the betting companies might just be hedging their profits (or losses) a bit.

This is with Betfair.

They're not really in a much better position - they've added less than 200 runs and lost 4 wickets. Surely this sort of progress is roughly according to expectation? Also they're roughly the same price in the draw no bet market as they were before the match, and they are in a worse position now (don't know how else to put it) than they were at the start of the match.

 

[Manee]

I really don't think they are.

Definitely are. Australia have four wickets to take. With no bowler looking particularly threatening, that could take a long time.

Also, England bowling Vs Australian batting looks like it can only go one way.

 

[Cabinet96]

If I was an Aussie bowler I would hate Broad so much.

Yeah, he and Swann must be so horrible for opposition bowlers when they get runs. Always hilarious viewing if you're an English fan though.

 

[Goughy]

What sort of lead (at the end of this innings) would make the chase a 50/50 affair?

For me 250 Aus favs. 275 Eng favs so somewhere in between. Right now I have Aus as clear favs as England do not yet have the runs on the board.

 

[dermo]

Haha yeah I do agree. I also think Australia are value at the moment; I make the game only slightly in England's favour. I just think it'd be wrong to say "oh it's only Day 3, nothing wrong with the pitch, only chasing ~ 250" etc because although all that is true, Australia's batting lineup is bad at the best of the times. Day 3 or not I think this pitch will turn for Swann and that essentially gives Australia two relevant batsmen.

tbf Hughes did play Swann well in the first innings

 

[Manee]

For me 250 Aus favs. 275 Eng favs so somewhere in between. Right now I have Aus as clear favs as England do not yet have the runs on the board.

I think 150 Australia favourites and 200 England favourites.

 

[NUFAN]

What sort of lead (at the end of this innings) would make the chase a 50/50 affair?

222

I really don't think they are.

Of course they are. This has been England's day.

This is with Betfair.

They're not really in a much better position - they've added less than 200 runs and lost 4 wickets. Surely this sort of progress is roughly according to expectation? Also they're roughly the same price in the draw no bet market as they were before the match, and they are in a worse position now (don't know how else to put it) than they were at the start of the match.

Oh okay, yeah Betfair is different. I'm not sure how much the odds have changed, but I definitely think England are in a better position now compared to the start of play. We still need 4 wickets..

 

[Prince EWS]

Definitely are. Australia have four wickets to take. With no bowler looking particularly threatening, that could take a long time.

Also, England bowling Vs Australian batting looks like it can only go one way.

You do realise we were comparing England at the start of the day v England now in that exchange right, and not England now v Australia now?

At the start of the day Australia had eight wickets to take and Australia's batting hasn't got worse since then. I don't think 200/4 would've been above expectations which is how the market should work.

 

[Spark]

So that second new ball eh...

 

[flibbertyjibber]

tbf Hughes did play Swann well in the first innings

That was 2 days before Swann gets at him again.

 

[Manee]

You do realise we were comparing England at the start of the day v England now in that exchange right, and not England now v Australia now?

At the start of the day Australia had eight wickets to take and Australia's batting hasn't got worse since then. I don't think 200/4 would've been above expectations which is how the market should work.

I didn't realise that but still...

At the start of the day, you could not have anticipated England on course for the highest score of the match?

 

[Expressway76]

Watson has done a really good job for us this innings, even without taking a wicket.

I've rarely seen him bowl really poorly. Seems to always do a job.

 

[Stapel]

For me 250 Aus favs. 275 Eng favs so somewhere in between. Right now I have Aus as clear favs as England do not yet have the runs on the board.

/yeah, figured 260 would make it 50-50. I don't agree with the latter part though. I think England are quite likely to get there from where they are now.

tbf Hughes did play Swann well in the first innings

Agreed!
Actually, that was forgotten a bit, due to Agar's innings. Hughes actually playing Swann the way he did, makes a hell of a lot of difference for this series.

 

[Spark]

I mean if we had competent batsmen then we'd be well ahead, but...