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Thread: First thread - Who will be the top run scorer and wicket taker?

  1. #61
    Virat Kohli (c) Jono's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Valer View Post
    But (some) batsman do tend to be more likely to have a poor innings after a string of good ones....
    Unless you clearly define what is a string of good ones, this is kind of meaningless isn't it?

  2. #62
    U19 Captain Valer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jono View Post
    Unless you clearly define what is a string of good ones, this is kind of meaningless isn't it?
    I haven't done my own analysis but he used arithmetic mean (average) over the last 5 outs*.


    *The last innings of players finishing n.o were ignored.
    Last edited by Valer; 15-05-2013 at 10:05 PM.

  3. #63
    Global Moderator Prince EWS's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jono View Post
    But that's not the point PEWS is saying. All he is saying is that people saying someone is due a poor series is a stupid statement with no genuine argument or even remote evidence behind it. Its a figment of everyone's imagination.

    In fact there was nothing stats monger about that post you quoted of PEWS. He may have used stats terminology (i.e mean) but really, what he said was actually just common sense.
    I actually thought honestbharani was agreeing with me - that trying to guess what a player would score based on what he'd scored in his last five innings or whatever completely ignores the fact that it's actually a contest between bat and ball out there; not a programmed simulation.

    I've actually completely rejected any sort of statistical analysis on this.
    Last edited by Prince EWS; 15-05-2013 at 10:24 PM.
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  4. #64
    Global Moderator Prince EWS's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Valer View Post
    But (some) batsman do tend to be more likely to have a poor innings after a string of good ones...
    And some don't. It's a coincidence. No-one has had a career long enough to make strings like this statistically significant. I'm sure if you generated a series of random numbers then you'd find what appeared to be repeating patterns and quirks amongst those too but it'd just be mental masturbation.

    Batting scores aren't random, but that just strengthens the case for that "analysis" to be ridiculous, really. They're a product of your physical performances out there in the middle with the bat against the bowlers you're facing and the fielding side; they're not a product a statistical sequence or randomly generated, and they're certainly not a product of the cricket gods deciding your recent record is flattering/unflattering and that you're due for a bad/good score.

    So, all in all, I actually agree with honestbharani here. As you all know I love my stats but the sports world of late has been infected by what I like to call "voodoo stats" - statistics without a logical explanation that are clearly products of uncontrolled variables, poor sample sizes or just good old fashioned coincidences. Certain batsmen being more or less likely to score big after a string of five (totally arbitrary from what I can see) big innings is just another one of those.
    Last edited by Prince EWS; 15-05-2013 at 10:36 PM.


  5. #65
    International Coach uvelocity's Avatar
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    should change your location to 'voodoo stats'

    i'd change mine but im fond of seamy road
    "He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts.. . For support rather than illumination. " - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)

  6. #66
    Hall of Fame Member honestbharani's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jono View Post
    But that's not the point PEWS is saying. All he is saying is that people saying someone is due a poor series is a stupid statement with no genuine argument or even remote evidence behind it. Its a figment of everyone's imagination.

    In fact there was nothing stats monger about that post you quoted of PEWS. He may have used stats terminology (i.e mean) but really, what he said was actually just common sense.
    I was talking about the people who come up with those articles reg. form and being due to score and all that.. Not necessarily PEWS.. should have clarified that
    We miss you, Fardin. :(. RIP.
    Quote Originally Posted by vic_orthdox View Post
    In the end, I think it's so utterly, incomprehensibly boring. There is so much context behind each innings of cricket that dissecting statistics into these small samples is just worthless. No-one has ever been faced with the same situation in which they come out to bat as someone else. Ever.
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  7. #67
    Hall of Fame Member honestbharani's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Prince EWS View Post
    I actually thought honestbharani was agreeing with me - that trying to guess what a player would score based on what he'd scored in his last five innings or whatever completely ignores the fact that it's actually a contest between bat and ball out there; not a programmed simulation.

    I've actually completely rejected any sort of statistical analysis on this.
    Yep.. I am having a go at the guys who think all of that actually makes sense.. Predicting a game between human beings with stats.. Sure, that will end well...

  8. #68
    Virat Kohli (c) Jono's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Prince EWS View Post
    I actually thought honestbharani was agreeing with me - that trying to guess what a player would score based on what he'd scored in his last five innings or whatever completely ignores the fact that it's actually a contest between bat and ball out there; not a programmed simulation.

    I've actually completely rejected any sort of statistical analysis on this.
    Quote Originally Posted by honestbharani View Post
    I was talking about the people who come up with those articles reg. form and being due to score and all that.. Not necessarily PEWS.. should have clarified that
    Quote Originally Posted by honestbharani View Post
    Yep.. I am having a go at the guys who think all of that actually makes sense.. Predicting a game between human beings with stats.. Sure, that will end well...
    my bad

  9. #69
    U19 Captain Valer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Prince EWS View Post
    And some don't. It's a coincidence. No-one has had a career long enough to make strings like this statistically significant. I'm sure if you generated a series of random numbers then you'd find what appeared to be repeating patterns and quirks amongst those too but it'd just be mental masturbation.
    You can easily get statistical significance on a difference in slope t-test. If I had his data I'd show you but I cbf setting up something to pull it.

    Heres some methods if you feel like doing it yourself.
    https://www.ets.org/Media/Research/pdf/RR-09-32.pdf

    Quote Originally Posted by Prince EWS View Post
    Batting scores aren't random, but that just strengthens the case for that "analysis" to be ridiculous, really. They're a product of your physical performances out there in the middle with the bat against the bowlers you're facing and the fielding side; they're not a product a statistical sequence or randomly generated, and they're certainly not a product of the cricket gods deciding your recent record is flattering/unflattering and that you're due for a bad/good score.
    How is any of this a problem, you're describing a typical data set. Cricket is not a special flower.

    Quote Originally Posted by Prince EWS View Post
    So, all in all, I actually agree with honestbharani here. As you all know I love my stats but the sports world of late has been infected by what I like to call "voodoo stats" - statistics without a logical explanation that are clearly products of uncontrolled variables, poor sample sizes or just good old fashioned coincidences. Certain batsmen being more or less likely to score big after a string of five (totally arbitrary from what I can see) big innings is just another one of those.
    Spend 5 minutes to read what's been written there. You don't understand what he's written.

    How is the existence (h0 form does not exist) form not a explanation? As for anti-form don't bowlers tend to have better plans against in form batsmen, also see playing for your place.


    As an aside are you suggesting form doesn't exist at all or just that some players don't slump/improve after a series of good/bad innings?

  10. #70
    State Captain Adders's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Valer View Post
    I cbf setting up something to pull it.
    This is the trouble with nerds.........just lay back and let nature take its course man!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Valer View Post
    Heres some methods if you feel like doing it yourself.
    Oh my goodness.......so many possibilities. But I think I'll stop now.
    Last edited by Adders; 16-05-2013 at 03:34 AM.
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  11. #71
    Hall of Fame Member Furball's Avatar
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    Didn't Pickup do some sort of analysis years ago which basically concluded that there was no such thing as form?

  12. #72
    U19 Captain Valer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GingerFurball View Post
    Didn't Pickup do some sort of analysis years ago which basically concluded that there was no such thing as form?
    I haven't see it but...
    Note the changing sign. If he did an anaylsis on a group of players rather than an individual you'd likely get less conclusive results.

    Adders

  13. #73
    Hall of Fame Member honestbharani's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jono View Post
    my bad
    and as off topic as it is, loving Ross's batting right now

  14. #74
    International Captain LongHopCassidy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Valer View Post
    But (some) batsman do tend to be more likely to have a poor innings after a string of good ones....
    Ah, but how long is a piece of string?
    "The Australian cricket captain is the Prime Minister Australia wishes it had. Steve Waugh is that man, Michael Clarke is not." - Jarrod Kimber

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  15. #75
    Hall of Fame Member luckyeddie's Avatar
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    Trott to score the most runs

    Broad to take most wickets
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