Ashes betting

[simmy]

Betfair have England (Draw No Bet) for the next game at nearing 1.90.

I fail to see how this bet cannot be profitable. Hell I think 1.7 would be over generous.

[GotSpin]

Oh yehhhhhh

[Uppercut]

Originally Posted by simmy

Betfair have England (Draw No Bet) for the next game at nearing 1.90.

I fail to see how this bet cannot be profitable. Hell I think 1.7 would be over generous.

Is there any point to going draw-no-bet on it? When was the last draw at Perth?

[Jono]

2005.

Jacques Rudolph ftw

[simmy]

Originally Posted by Uppercut

Is there any point to going draw-no-bet on it? When was the last draw at Perth?

It just takes a whole load of risk out.

Alternatively, you could back England at 2.8 or lay the draw at 3.15 (which from what you are saying is a good idea).

I just can't see Australia winning the game, so rather than laying it at 3.15 have opted for the more risk averse option of the draw no bet.

[simmy]

If the betfair market is correct, they predict a draw in this game about 32% of the time...

[Prince EWS]

Originally Posted by simmy

It just takes a whole load of risk out.

Alternatively, you could back England at 2.8 or lay the draw at 3.15 (which from what you are saying is a good idea).

I just can't see Australia winning the game, so rather than laying it at 3.15 have opted for the more risk averse option of the draw no bet.

Haha, Uppercut knows why that option exists - he's just making the point that he doesn't think a draw is very likely because they're rare at Perth and that England 2.80 is the better bet.

[Uppercut]

Originally Posted by simmy

It just takes a whole load of risk out.

Alternatively, you could back England at 2.8 or lay the draw at 3.15 (which from what you are saying is a good idea).

I just can't see Australia winning the game, so rather than laying it at 3.15 have opted for the more risk averse option of the draw no bet.

Well, yeah, I agree that Australia seem pretty hopeless. But on top of that, the Perth curators have been churning out result wickets for as long as anyone can remember and I don't think it's likely that they're going to stop with Australia 1-0 down in an Ashes series where a draw does the home side no good. The expectation of a draw is surely well below 33% so IMO you're missing a healthy chunk of value by going draw-no-bet.

[simmy]

Originally Posted by Uppercut

Well, yeah, I agree that Australia seem pretty hopeless. But on top of that, the Perth curators have been churning out result wickets for as long as anyone can remember and I don't think it's likely that they're going to stop with Australia 1-0 down in an Ashes series where a draw does the home side no good. The expectation of a draw is surely well below 33% so IMO you're missing a healthy chunk of value by going draw-no-bet.

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I see your point....

I do have a small position on the Draw no bet already... could lay that off for a small arb, but might just stick with it.

Planning on backing England at 3.0 before the game starts as the price still seems to be drifting... for some reason I am not privy to.

[simmy]

Not really Ashes betting I guess but... Graeme Swann for BBC Sports Personality of the year... he is currently the third fav to win, now 10/1 having been 33/1 a week ago.

I have backed him to get a top 3 finish at 3.35 on Betfair... seems a good price given he is the third fav after all...

[ramkumar_gr]

Anderson < 92 fetches 1.83 in b365. What does that exactly mean? It is runs both innings combined? What if he doesn't bat at all? What if he bats in one and not in another? What if he remains not out in both innings but less than 92? Any help?

[simmy]

Originally Posted by ramkumar_gr

Anderson < 92 fetches 1.83 in b365. What does that exactly mean? It is runs both innings combined? What if he doesn't bat at all? What if he bats in one and not in another? What if he remains not out in both innings but less than 92? Any help?

Its a player performance index.

Normally for every wicket he will get 20 points, every catch 10pts and every run = 1pt.

So if he gets 4 wkts in the match and say 15runs total... you will lose the bet.

[simmy]

Have said it once and will say it again now... England at 2.9 at the start of the match is farcically generous.

The bookies have so got it wrong throughout the whole series.

[Jono]

Hussey's going to ton up tonight and **** you over Got SPin

[GotSpin]

Originally Posted by Jono

Hussey's going to ton up tonight and **** you over Got SPin

he'll get out in the 90s