Who's gonna win?

[pasag]

We're not at our best right now, but England will find a way to stumble over their own mediocrity. It's in their genes, there's no fighting it.

[Uppercut]

Originally Posted by GeraintIsMyHero

The key question to ask is, who is the better team?

I believe it's England.

Are we better by enough to counter Australian conditions? Given how untested the bowlers are in Australia, it's hard for me to say. But I am confident in them. The batsmen are more of a concern than the attack for me, but I just have a feeling that Pietersen will have his best ever series.

Problem is, even if England adjust perfectly, Australia are so, soooo much better at home than they are anywhere else. England will have to do a fair bit more than sustain the quality of their cricket over the last two years to come out on top, they'll need a pretty big improvement, a lot of stuff has to come together.

[Jono]

Nah if Australia play like they did against WI and Pakistan last year, they'll lose.

If England play like they have recently, then Aust have to improve from their home performances. Sure they won 5 out of 6 tests (which is obviously excellent), but considering the opposition, they still need to lift a bit.

Ftr, like pasag, I just think England will underperform rather than Australia need to lift their game much.

[BoyBrumby]

Sachin knows, tbh. From The Guardian.

[Burgey]

Originally Posted by pasag

We're not at our best right now, but England will find a way to stumble over their own mediocrity. It's in their genes, there's no fighting it.

Originally Posted by Jono

Nah if Australia play like they did against WI and Pakistan last year, they'll lose.

If England play like they have recently, then Aust have to improve from their home performances. Sure they won 5 out of 6 tests (which is obviously excellent), but considering the opposition, they still need to lift a bit.

Ftr, like pasag, I just think England will underperform rather than Australia need to lift their game much.

This. England can always be counted on to falter when they tour here.

Originally Posted by BoyBrumby

Sachin knows, tbh.

From The Guardian.

Sachin doesn't always hear things right. He probably mis-heard the question

[Ruckus]

Originally Posted by Spark

People often mistakenly say these were close games, in both cases I say the final scoreline flatters the Windies. In Adelaide, virtually everyone who got out threw their wicket away going for the win. Once Clarke/Haddin realised there was no point going for it any more, it was a rather obvious draw. I'd say had we gotten another session to bat we'd have won that in a canter.

In Perth - the scoreline definitely flatters the Windies, as it was extremely obvious long once Nash and Deonarine had left what the result would be. They just scored a few more runs than we'd have liked in getting there.

I don't think people are mistaken at all for thinking that. Reasons like "virtually everyone who got out threw their wicket away going for the win" are such cop-outs. In Adelaide, Australia chose to go for the win, and risked losing the game in doing so. Just because Clarke/Haddin managed to play out a draw, doesn't mean Australia's position was comfortable. If either/both Clarke or Haddin were dismissed, then the tail could have quite easily been removed and the WI would have won. In Perth, there is absolutely no way you can say a win by 35 runs flatters the WI. Once again, saying "They just scored a few more runs than we'd have liked in getting there" is a cop-out. What if they scored a few more runs than that? They would have won. Just like Ishant/Laxman did in Mohali.

The bottom line is, both of those results were far closer than they should have been given the difference in potential strength of the Aus and WI teams. If there are any flattering results, it is the what the series scorecard read in favour of Australia.

[Jono]

Originally Posted by BoyBrumby

Sachin knows, tbh. From The Guardian.

Haha that's interesting. He almost always says Australia will win when asked about them against another opponent.

Obviously doesn't rate them anymore after beating them 2-0

[Jono]

Originally Posted by DeusEx

I don't think people are mistaken at all for thinking that. Reasons like "virtually everyone who got out threw their wicket away going for the win" are such cop-outs. In Adelaide, Australia chose to go for the win, and risked losing the game in doing so. Just because Clarke/Haddin managed to play out a draw, doesn't mean Australia's position was comfortable. If either/both Clarke or Haddin were dismissed, then the tail could have quite easily been removed and the WI would have won. In Perth, there is absolutely no way you can say a win by 35 runs flatters the WI. Once again, saying "They just scored a few more runs than we'd have liked in getting there" is a cop-out. What if they scored a few more runs than that? They would have won. Just like Ishant/Laxman did in Mohali.

The bottom line is, both of those results were far closer than they should have been given the difference in potential strength of the Aus and WI teams. If there are any flattering results, it is the what the series scorecard read in favour of Australia.

Excellent post.

[Flem274*]

Would love England to win just so the unthinkable can happen to Australia.

[Burgey]

Lovely little precursor to the Ashes on channel nine right now with us vs the filth in the RL Four Nations.

Scoreline proving as one-sided as the cricket no doubt will be.

[smalishah84]

Originally Posted by Uppercut

Problem is, even if England adjust perfectly, Australia are so, soooo much better at home than they are anywhere else. England will have to do a fair bit more than sustain the quality of their cricket over the last two years to come out on top, they'll need a pretty big improvement, a lot of stuff has to come together.

Well said...........

[smalishah84]

Originally Posted by pasag

We're not at our best right now, but England will find a way to stumble over their own mediocrity. It's in their genes, there's no fighting it.

[morgieb]

Originally Posted by Jono

Nah if Australia play like they did against WI and Pakistan last year, they'll lose.

If England play like they have recently, then Aust have to improve from their home performances. Sure they won 5 out of 6 tests (which is obviously excellent), but considering the opposition, they still need to lift a bit.

Ftr, like pasag, I just think England will underperform rather than Australia need to lift their game much.

England also won 5 from 6 and Bangladesh & Pakistan < West Indies & Pakistan. Plus, it's on our turf.

Really the only rubber we've lost in the past 15 years was against South Africa, and that required a couple of superhuman efforts to do so. Don't see us losing, and even if the season starts off rocky, then I imagine the selectors will be far harsher than usual.....

[Spark]

It also required a superhuman failure (Day 3 MCG)...

[vic_orthdox]

Gah, was going to write my bit on the Ashes Blog about how Australia don't seem to be winning the crucial moments of games (esp. Tests), a characteristic that was the opposite of the teams before McGrath and Warne retired. Now I'm just going to be stating the obvious.