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Thread: England will not win the Ashes

  1. #31
    State Vice-Captain Pizzorno's Avatar
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    Being honest, I think a one-legged Bolt would still run faster than most of us.
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  2. #32
    Cricket Web Staff Member Richard's Avatar
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    OK... if there are two possibilities, one being England regaining The Ashes, and the other being Australia retaining them, then if one person predicts one thing and the other predicts the other, one is going to be right and one wrong. It's as simple as that.

    Ergo, someone making a two-way call is really not doing something of tremendous note.
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    Hall of Fame Member Jamee999's Avatar
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    So if I predicted I was going to win said race, and then did, you wouldn't think anything of it, as it was a two-horse-race?
    Or something.

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  4. #34
    Hall of Fame Member Jamee999's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pizzorno View Post
    Being honest, I think a one-legged Bolt would still run faster than most of us.
    I would love to have a 100m race with Bolt me running vs him hopping. I literally have no idea who would win.


  5. #35
    Hall of Fame Member FaaipDeOiad's Avatar
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    Usain Bolt could be crushed by a falling meteor in the middle of the race, and therefore be unable to win. This is exactly as likely to happen as Bolt jogging across the line for a comfortable win.

    Richard is right, you guys are all crazy.
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  6. #36
    BARNES OUT dontcloseyoureyes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by FaaipDeOiad View Post
    Usain Bolt could be crushed by a falling meteor in the middle of the race, and therefore be unable to win. This is exactly as likely to happen as Bolt jogging across the line for a comfortable win.

    Richard is right, you guys are all crazy.
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  7. #37
    JJD Heads Athlai's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Richard View Post
    OK... if there are two possibilities, one being England regaining The Ashes, and the other being Australia retaining them, then if one person predicts one thing and the other predicts the other, one is going to be right and one wrong. It's as simple as that.

    Ergo, someone making a two-way call is really not doing something of tremendous note.
    Yeah but if I say Bangladesh will win this Test series and you say they will lose it. There are two options but you would be right 99% of the time while I would not be.

    Isn't a coin flip, closer to playing roulette and trying to hit 00.
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  8. #38
    Cricket Web Staff Member Richard's Avatar
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    I'm not sure what roulette involves TBH, but I've always thought there were more than two possible outcomes? If so, it's not remotely akin to a Test series with a trophy at stake, where there can only be retention or regaining.

  9. #39
    Cricket Web Staff Member Richard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jamee999 View Post
    So if I predicted I was going to win said race, and then did, you wouldn't think anything of it, as it was a two-horse-race?
    It'd obviously be a brainless prediction that came to pass only by complete chance (unless you'd gained considerable confidence in Fuller to arrange the falling meteor of which he speaks), but if there's a race between you and Usain Bolt, Andrew Garven or Allan Donald cannot win it.

  10. #40
    Cricketer Of The Year zaremba's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Richard View Post
    OK... if there are two possibilities, one being England regaining The Ashes, and the other being Australia retaining them, then if one person predicts one thing and the other predicts the other, one is going to be right and one wrong. It's as simple as that.
    But the fact that there are a hundred percentage points to play with does not mean that the odds are always going to be 50:50.

  11. #41
    Cricketer Of The Year Adamc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Richard View Post
    No. I predict that at the commencement of each race, the chance is 50\50. Because there is an equal chance that he will slip and fall in every case as there is in every other.
    Would it be so difficult for you to just admit that this post was wrong? You'd save yourself a lot of time and further embarrassment. The fact that there are only two possible outcomes does not mean that they occur with equal probability. '50/50' implies that they do, in everyone's universe except yours, apparently.
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  12. #42
    BARNES OUT dontcloseyoureyes's Avatar
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    Your understanding of probabilities and distribution is terribly poor, Richard.

  13. #43
    JJD Heads Athlai's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Richard View Post
    I'm not sure what roulette involves TBH, but I've always thought there were more than two possible outcomes? If so, it's not remotely akin to a Test series with a trophy at stake, where there can only be retention or regaining.
    In roulette you usually bet on black or red though there with the 41(?) numbers on the wheel, 40 of which have 20 red and 20 black there is also however a green 00 to tip it to the casinos favor slightly. Savvy?

  14. #44
    Global Moderator Prince EWS's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dontcloseyoureyes View Post
    Your understanding of probabilities and distribution is terribly poor, Richard.
    AWTA strongly. He's not the only one on this forum with that problem either; such a simple concept that so many people **** up.
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