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Originally Posted by Scaly piscine
I believe the explanation was that it wasn't calibrated for that level of spin.
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Maybe.. but how many times have seen balls do a lot more, sometimes after passing the batsman, sometimes just when it nears the bat after pitching well short... I just have a hard time believing any software can consider that many variants and come up with definitive conclusions (that is, within 90% of success).. It is not blind faith. I work in these areas everyday and I see how often they get it wrong and how much improvements are attempted. Today everyone of these machines are controlled by human judgement. They do the automated tasks, they collect the data and they show us reports, but it is us humans who judge what they mean and come up with predictions on what would happen from there..
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scaly piscine
Hawkeye's 95% perfection?!? That's a total nonsense for a start. If you knew what you were talking about you would realise that. Is it 95% perfection if it gets 19 out of 20 right - competent umpiring level? Or is it the margin of error proportionate to the data? Or something else? Whatever it is I suggest you go and study the data yourself if you doubt it. That's what a scientist is supposed to do, not this blind faith crap.
Hawkeye doesn't need to have some sort of approximation of conscious thought towards seam, swing and so on. It can track the ball moving. If there was a 50mph crosswind it would track the ball moving and project the path. If the ball hits a crack half way down it can follow the path of the ball from where it bounced. Given the lbw rule it doesn't need to guess at the seam movement or spin if it hits the batsman on the full. If you asked Hawkeye to project the bath of the ball to the wicket-keeper then you'd have some errors and guesswork because in England the ball can swing well after it passes the batsman. But Hawkeye is dealing with something that is simply an extension of path it has tracked. The seam and spin has ALREADY happened. If the ball is a swinging full toss you can work out the swing and the lateral acceleration on the ball.
The only time guessing comes into it is when you have a gusty wind. That's when one of the variables changes - the variables themselves are shown by the ball moving and being tracked, the way it bounces, swings, seams etc. A gust of wind immediately after the ball hits the pad could cause a fractional difference to the direction. But that would be covered by margins of error anyway.
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Again, you are assuming that the ball will never move more than what it moved at impact. An umpire can judge that, hawkeye cannot. And there are 3 or 4 people involved who work on Hawkeye and if and when they get it wrong, the human error there is gonna cause hell of a lot more damage than any umpire's error has. And I understand they do not stop the hawkeye's tracking at some random point and then use the predictive path to compare it on a match to match basis. Which means, all the experimentation and results provided can be of no use, if they had been so much as a 1mm displacement of one of their 6 tracking cameras, which is perfectly possible. And from reading up on the Hawkeye guy's PDF where he has shared his mail communications with Mickey Arthur and some screengrabs, it is even more obvious that they NEVER provide for exaggerated deviations at any point after pitching. They track the ball till impact and extrapolate from there.