Originally Posted by Fusion
I know Obama's outlook for reelection look grim, but I firmly believe it would be a HUGE upset if he lost. There are a variety of reasons for that. The weak Republican field and the fact that the Republican nominee will be catering to the crazy Tea Party platform, the experience and talent of Obama's campaign team, and lastly, simple electoral math. To wit:
Why it would take a herculean effort to defeat Obama
Disagree. I feel that if Romney is the nominee, Obama will lose. EVERYBODY caters to their base during the primary. They'll come back to the center during the general election. Who else are the tea party members gonna vote for? Obama? I don't think so. Basically they need to win Ohio and Florida. Obama is taking an absolute beating in Ohio due to the economic downturn, and to win Florida all the republicans need to do is select Rubio as the VP candidate. Welcome to Romney 2012.
The only person I listen to about these things is Nate Silver (FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right
). Deadset, without a doubt, and by far the best and most accurate political predictions on the internet.