Originally Posted by Scaly piscine
Think 5 points is value there. If you look at the odds for 7 points and say right how unlikely is it that England drop a couple of points in either of the two games they win, it's not a differential of 21/10 to 17/2 in my opinion. Particularly as 5 points would almost certainly have a team qualify anyway.
Well you get paid about four times as much when they draw the third of the games than you do when they win it. I think the other odds on the site pretty much do suggest that an England win is around four times as likely.